| Yangtze River shipping industry has been an important strategic position in China's transportation industry.In recent years,with the Yangtze River economic belt construction progress gradually,the state's attention towards the Yangtze River shipping industry has been improved significantly.Yangtze River shipping and transportation demand has risen year by year,but the capacity of the Three Gorges ship lock is limited,and its contradiction between the lack of capacity and the increase of ship's demand is becoming more and more prominent.Since the Yangtze River shipping volume exceeded 100 million tons in 2011,the accumulation of the ship in the Three Gorges Dam is becoming more and more serious,especially in the strong wind and big fog,flood season,ship traffic and lock maintenance period the Three Gorges Dam ship detention is more serious.The backlog of ships in the Three Gorges Dam has brought great pressure to the navigation management of the dam area.The backlog of ships will have a certain impact on the surrounding environment,society and economic property.It is imperative to study the backlog of ships in the Three Gorges Dam.Therefore,this paper constructs the cellular automata model of the ship's traffic flow in the Three Gorges Dam,simulates the backlog of the ship and expands the research of the cellular automaton in the safety of the inland waterway,which is helpful to accurately grasp the formation and evolution of the ship's backlog before the dam.It is helpful to the formulation and verification of the emergency plan before the dam.It has a certain guiding significance to alleviate the backlog of the ship in the Three Gorges Project.This paper researches on the backlog of ships in front of the Three Gorges Dam.Based on the analysis of the present situation of the backlog ships in the Three Gorges Dam,the five important reasons for the backlog of ships are summarized: the increase of freight volume,the fog and high winds,the maintenance of ship lock,the large flood season and other factors.Combined with the investigation of ships,anchorage,ship lock and waterway conditions,we provide a reasonable method for cell division.Some rules have been set,such as the ship entry and exit anchors rules,ship lanechange rules,anchorage ship docking rules,dock anchorage effect within the scope of the ship sailing rules and ship clearance rules.Based on the NS model and combined with the Fuji model and the queuing theory,the model of the ship traffic flow in the Three Gorges Dam is established.We first simulate the ship backlog under normal conditions.And then construct the ship navigation CA model under the four most important influencing factors,such as wind fog,cargo volume increase,ship lock maintenance and flood season.Through changing the parameters,we study the effect of four factors of ship backlog situation.The simulation results indicate that the impact of the backlog of ships is not particularly significant in the short term when the increase in ship traffic is not significant,but when the increase in shipments is more than 7% or longer than 17 days.The impact of the increase of ship's traffic on the backlog is very significant.In the short term,the influence of the ship's overhaul and flood season on the backlog of ship are the most obvious situations,the final backlog ships has the largest number and the most serious impact. |
PDF Full Text Request