Technology Forecasting Based On The Network Of Contradictions And Logistic Curve Models

In the era of knowledge economy,in order to occupy the frontier of technology in the future,we need to use scientific means to grasp the trend of technology and predict the direction of technology development,the level of technology forecasting methods has a great influence on innovation development.In order to be reliable a forecast has to be reproducible and verifiable,the model used in the forecasting must has been calculated and recognized in the evolution of the system.Merely quantitative models like S-curve and qualitative models like the technology evolution route of TRIZ cannot guarantee the reliable verification of new technology in the forecast.This paper presents a method of technology forecasting based on the network of contradictions and logistic curves models,to get the features of the new technologies,so as to achieve the purpose of forecast.The main contents of the study include the following four aspects:1.Establish a complete technology forecasting model.Taking the network of contradictions model as the core,a technology forecasting process model with implementability is established.Various quantitative and qualitative models are used in the forecasting model of this technique,combined with the advantages of two kinds of forecasting models,the reliability of prediction is emphasized,and the features of future technologies are predicted based on this.2.Establish the transformation network of contradictions model.The OTSM-TRIZ theory for solving complex problems is introduced,the network of contradictions model in this theory can effectively simplify the solution of complex problems.The network of contradictions is usually applied in the field of technological innovation.This paper analyzes the classification of contradictions in the field of prediction and proposes a model to transform problems into t network of contradictions in the field of forecasting.3.Use the logical substitution model to forecast new technology.To explore the competitive relationship between new and old technology by logical substitution of S curve,and the properties of the logical S curve,this paper presents a quantitative forecasting model based on logical substitution method,used to forecast the timing and trends of new technologies.4.This paper takes the tyre breaker as an example to verify the technology forecasting method,strictly according to the process of the technology forecasting method,get the requirements and features of the future tyre breaker,and give the reasonable scheme under the limitation analysis,then get new products and evaluate them.The reliability and practicability of this method are verified.