The Valuation Research Of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Automobile Project Under Uncertainty

To cope with the depletion of energy and global warming,countries around the world are accelerating changes in energy access,transportation of goods and other ways,transport electrification and low-carbonization of energy has become the direction of national efforts,and automobiles as energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are facing revolutionary reform.China has established a series of strategies to support the development of new energy automobile industry since 2006,and has become the largest pure electric automobile market in the world.Nevertheless,our country still faces the bigger contradiction of energy supply and demand,from the planning of China's energy technology revolution,the development of hydrogen energy automobile accords with the energy security strategy of our country.Hydrogen fuel-cell cars in hydrogen-powered cars are high hopes,but there is no denying that hydrogen fuel-cell cars face huge market and technical risks,and the upstream and downstream industries are controversial.With the hydrogen fuel cell vehicles gradually entering the commercial stage,it is urgent to carry out systematic research on the valuation of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle project to accurately evaluate the investment value of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle project,so as to help the investment and financing of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle project investors and the healthy development of the industry.The hydrogen fuel cell automotive investment project contains many uncertain factors,investors can delay the investment at the most favorable time to maximize the investment value.In this case,it is difficult for the traditional DCF theory to accurately evaluate the investment value of the project.Therefore,this paper systematically combs the factors affecting the investment value of hydrogen fuel cell automobile project from the two angles of income and cost.Considering the large market and technical risk of hydrogen fuel cell automobile,its sales volume,sales unit price,government purchase subsidy and manufacturing cost will change greatly in the next 20 years.In general,the evaluation model constructed in this paper can accurately evaluate the investment value of hydrogen fuel cell automobile project and the investment probability of different investment time points,and provide the decision reference basis for investors to invest in hydrogen fuel cell automobile industry,which has certain theoretical and practical significance.Through the case study,under the framework of the investment value evaluation of the hydrogen fuel cell automobile project,this paper deeply analyzes the hydrogen fuel cell automobile industry,combines the development of the case company,applies the simulation experiment method to obtain the reasonable drift rate and the fluctuation rate parameter of the relevant parameters,and obtains the investment value of the case company hydrogen fuel cell logistics vehicle project.From the value evaluation results,the investment environment of hydrogen fuel cell automobile is not mature enough.Under the assumption of initial value,drift rate and volatility of relevant parameters in this paper,the investment in 2020 cannot realize the value maximization,and the delay investment gives investors a huge delay option return.In order to verify the accuracy of the evaluation model,this paper makes a scenario analysis of whether there is a carbon emission trading mechanism,and makes a sensitivity analysis of the three indexes of automobile sales,government purchase subsidy retreat and manufacturing cost,and further studies the accuracy of parameter selection.The research results show that firstly,the carbon emission trading mechanism can promote the development of hydrogen fuel cell automobile industry,increase the investment value of the project,invest ahead of time,with the future hydrogen fuel cell automobile industry purchase subsidy gradually withdraw,the carbon emission trading mechanism can play the role of supporting industry development,China needs to establish and improve the carbon emission trading mechanism as soon as possible;secondly,the increase of initial sales volume and the decrease of manufacturing cost can greatly increase the investment value of automobile project,once the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle realizes the large-scale production,the lower cost of each link brought by the scale economy can accelerate the popularization of hydrogen fuel cell automobile.It is worth noting that even if the initial value of sales reaches 800 vehicles and the manufacturing cost drift rate reaches-0.18,it still cannot advance the investment time to 2020,which reflects the small scale of the current hydrogen fuel cell automobile market in China,the limited development of technology and other reasons seriously affect the development of the hydrogen fuel cell automobile industry.In addition,the government purchase subsidy policy has a great impact on the development of hydrogen fuel cell automobile industry,and the rapid withdrawal of purchase subsidy will seriously affect the healthy development of hydrogen fuel cell automobile industry.The development of hydrogen fuel automobile plays an important role in promoting economic development,reducing environmental pollution and alleviating resource depletion.