Research On Bidding Strategy Of Electricity Market Based On Behavior Analysis

With the advancement of domestic electricity market reform,a large number of electricity retailers have participated in the market.Some market behavior of market members in the process of participating in direct electricity trading have presented a series of new challenges to the risk management of the entire electricity market,the design of market trading mode and the formulation of market rules.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the impact of market members' behavior on the electricity market,such as generation companies,large power users and electricity retailers.This paper focuses on bidding behavior characteristics of market members'.Firstly,analyze several factors affecting bidding behavior of market members,including differentiated operation objectives of market members,market risks and market supply-demand ratio,etc.Then,establish bidding agent models of market members and simulate bidding strategies of market members participating in monthly centralized bidding market,which provides some references for the follow-up construction of the domestic electricity market.Specific research contents include:(1)Analyze the market behavior of electricity market members.Based on the business structure,the market members are divided into generation companies,user window electricity retailers,grid resources electricity retailers,comprehensive service electricity retailers.Summarize the impact of market member behavior caused by differentiated operation objectives of market members,market risks and market supply-demand ratio.Quantitatively evaluate the market risks faced by market members based on improved analytic hierarchy process with trapezoidal fuzzy,which provide support for subsequent chapters of modeling and simulation.(2)Combining the payment function and differentiated operation objectives,establish the bidding agent model of each market member,which emphasizes differentiated operation objectives of market members,electricity market risks and supply-demand ratio.Among them,the operation objectives of market members include maximizing profit,expanding the turnover of market transactions and expanding winning bid,etc.In the bidding agent model,the risk cost is used to measure the market risk faced by market members when they participate in monthly centralized bidding market.Market supply-demand ratio is one of the important factors affecting the risk cost of market members and each market member set different operational objectives according to different market risks.(3)Combining the actual trading scale and trading rules of Guangdong electricity market in 2018,based on the algorithm of modify Roth-Erev(MRE and improved experience-weighted attraction(EWA,simulate the effects of market members' differentiated operation objectives,electricity market risks and supply-demand ratio on bidding strategies of market members.The results show that generation companies with higher unit operation efficiency and comprehensive service electricity retailers have stronger market competitiveness,and keeping market supply and demand balance is the necessary condition to maintain market stability.