Urban Domestic Water Demand Forecast Under Water Saving Management Contract

The implementation of Water Saving Management Contract is an effective way to alleviate the crisis of urban water supply and demand,under the background of the increasing shortage of urban water resources.The forecast of urban domestic water demand is one of the important links in the Water Saving Management Contract.As the Water Saving Management Contract is affected by many uncertain factors,this study uses interval data to describe such uncertain factors,and proposes an ideal boundary multivariate stepwise regression model(MSR-LULB),which is applied to the city’s urban water demand forecast.The main research work of this thesis includes:(1)A LASSO-Support Vector Machine Regression model(LASSO-SVMR)is used for the first time in urban domestic water demand prediction.Firstly,the LASSO method is used to screen the variables with strong correlation with water demand.And it is combined with support vector machine regression(SVMR)to establish the urban living water demand prediction model.Secondly,the accuracy test is carried out with the data of Handan City and compared with the traditional SVMR model.The computational results shows that the prediction accuracy of the LASSO-SVMR model is higher than that of traditional SVMR model.(2)The MSR-LULB is established.Firstly,the urban domestic water demand is converted into interval number.The interval length is taken as the initial ideal width of this paper.Secondly,the prediction of interval width,interval symmetry,interval coverage and root mean square error are used as the accuracy evaluation criteria.The accuracy is compared with the uncertain time series model to determine the ideal width.Finally,using the data of Handan City,multivariate stepwise regression models are established separately for the upper and lower bounds of the interval of the urban domestic water demand,and the model accuracy is tested.(3)According to the 2019 forecast data of the two models in this paper,this paper analyses and puts forward corresponding countermeasures to the prediction results.The research in this paper further enrichs the forecasting method of urban domestic water demand,expands the interval number method and application scope of interval number,and provides theoretical basis and decision-making basis for urban water resources planning and optimization allocation.