Research On Residents’ Travel Behavior Choice And Bus Preferential Treatment Based On The Prospect Theory

With the rapid development of public transportation in China,it is the development goal of public transportation in major cities to form a modern public transportation system with rail transit and bus rapid transit as the backbone,conventional public transportation as the basis and diversified service modes as the supplement.While the radiation scope of the city is constantly expanding,transfer travel has become an important way of travel,and price lever regulation has become an important means to regulate the demand for transportation travel.Thus reasonable transfer preferential price plays an important role in the development of transportation From the perspective of the bounded rationality of business operators and travelers,this thesis focuses on the application status,theoretical basis and reasonable setting of urban rail transit and conventional bus transfer preferences.In terms of the theoretical basis of transfer preference,this thesis compares and analyzes the transfer preferential policies of foreign cities such as Singapore,Paris,Seoul and Chinese cities such as Taipei,Shanghai and other cities in China from the aspects of preferential methods,preferential amount and preferential effects.In terms of travel choice behavior,considering that different travelers have different perception differences and different travel preferences,the traditional expected utility theory,which assumes that decision maker are completely rational,is difficult to accurately describe travelers’ travel behavior,therefore,this thesis introduces the cumulative prospect theory to study travelers’ the limited rationality,making it more effective.In terms of the implementation of transfer ticket price,from the perspective of business operators,considering the cooperative game relationship between conventional public transportation and rail transit,the four modes of public transportation i.e.conventional public transport direct,subway direct,conventional public transport transfer conventional public transport and conventional public transport transfer rail transit,are introduced into the operation cost and fixed cost of business operators to maximize the profits of enterprises in order to optimize the upper planning model of the objective.From the perspective of travelers,the generalized cost function of different travel modes is established,which is composed of time cost,comfort cost and economic cost.Considering the limited rationality of travelers,the decision framework of cumulative prospect theory is introduced,the endogenous reference point,value function and cumulative decision weight function are determined,and different travel prospect values are calculated.Based on the cumulative prospect theory,the model of residents’ choice of travel mode is established,that is,the total generalized prospect value of travelers is the minimum.Taking Dalian city as the research background,the model is solved by genetic algorithm,the setting of transfer ticket price of conventional public transport and rail transit in Dalian is simulated and analyzed.The implementation of transfer discount is conducive to reducing the travel cost of passengers,improving the travel sharing rate of public transport,adjusting the travel structure of residents,and increasing the benefit of public transport.From the perspective of both business operators and travelers,combining with the generalized cost,the thesis introduces cumulative prospect theory based on which the bilevel programming is established and stimulates and analyzes the implementation of the discounted transfer ticket of Dalian urban rail transit and conventional public transport.The theoretical analysis and empirical results show that the transfer fare plays a driving role in guiding public transport travel and adjusting travel results.