Research On Forecast Of Urban Underground Facilities Demand Based On Socio-economic Factors

As China ’s urbanization process has accelerated significantly,population,space capacity,and environmental issues facing urban development have become increasingly prominent,which is directly affecting and restricting the development and transformation of cities.Accelerating and advancing the construction of urban underground facilities has become a response to the urban development process and the future use of urban space.The development and construction of underground facilities should be coordinated with the level of above-ground urbanization.The scale of development needs to be determined within a reasonable range.The social and economic conditions of the city determine the actual demand for urban underground facilities.This study starts with the socio-economic factors of the city,and takes the forecast of the demand for urban underground facilities as the research object.The main research contents and research results obtained are as follows:Summarized and sorted out the principles of seven types of urban underground facility demand forecasting methods: per capita demand forecasting method,sub-system forecasting method,functional demand forecasting method,demand intensity forecasting method,construction intensity forecasting method,ecological demand forecasting method,and trend extrapolation method.Characteristics,calculation steps and applicable objects,qualitative and quantitative analysis of different method characteristics and use conditions,and detailed description of each method in the form of typical cases.After analysis,it is found that there is no unified and systematic forecasting method for current urban underground facility demand forecast,and most of them rely on subjective judgment and rough estimation.Collected and sorted out the data of 43 groups of social economy and underground facilities development in 26 cities.With the help of mathematical analysis software SPSS,correlation analysis was used to obtain the socio-economic indicators that mainly affect the size of urban underground facilities.There are four indicators: GDP,average car ownership and land price.Using the curve estimation,it is judged that the optimal fitting relationship between the development intensity of underground facilities and the three indicators of resident population density,GDP per capita,and land price is a linear relationship.The fitting relationship is a power function relationship,revealing the relationship between the development and utilization of urban underground facilities and the urban socio-economic status.Innovatively used the linear regression prediction method to obtain the forecast model of underground facility demand.The model includes two types of underground facility demand forecasting equations: one is a universal equation for all cities in the country as U=0.93×P+0.108×E+0.204×L-1163.741,the relative error of this equation is relatively large;the other is the prediction equation of the underground facilities according to different types of cities: U=0.258×E+646.232(first-tier cities),U=-1.79×P+6.572×T+0.187×L+1106.431(new first-tier cities),U=2.122×P-4.575×T+0.082×L-644.882(other cities except first-tier and new first-tier),the model has relatively small prediction calculation error,and its prediction method is simple and the process is efficient.The results are more accurate and provide theoretical support for the development and construction of urban underground facilities.