| In recent years,the haze weather has been repeated frequently,and the north China is the worst affected.Especially during the winter heating period,the air pollution caused by coal burning becomes more and more serious,which has a serious impact on the normal social order and public health.A large amount of coal burning in northern winter contributes a lot to air pollution.To deal with this phenomenon,the government has issued a series of “coal to gas”policies,the haze phenomenon has been significantly improved.But the method that using the natural gas for heating instead of coal has led to the frequent shortages of natural gas supply.Therefore,from the perspective of reducing haze,it is extremely urgent to formulate reasonable natural gas import and supply strategies.In this paper,the natural gas demand for residential heating is predicted by building a structural model of natural gas demand for residential heating,which is of great significance for the energy authorities to ease the contradiction between energy supply and demand,formulate the natural gas development plan.Firstly,the main reasons of frequent occurrence of haze in recent years and the imbalance between supply and demand of natural gas caused by the use of natural gas for heating are analyzed,and the research status of natural gas prediction domestic and abroad are introduced.At the same time,the haze produced by burning coal and natural gas for heating is compared in detail,and the emission reduction rate of haze contributed by using natural gas for heating is calculated;Secondly,the main factors influencing the natural gas demand for residential heating were summarized systematically;the index system of natural gas demand forecast for residential heating was established.Then Minitab software is used to extract the main indicators using the optimal subset method,SPSS software is used to analyze the collinearity of the index system,and stepwise regression method is used to eliminate the multiple collinearity;Then,multiple linear regression analysis method and Eviews software are used to establish the structural model of natural gas demand for residential heating,and the model is tested and analyzed and the accuracy is calculated.With the help of trend extrapolation method and GM(1,1)grey predictionmethod,the predicted values of various influencing factors are calculated,and then the structural model is used to predict the demand of household collective and household heating natural gas in residents of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei from 2019 to 2022;Finally,the paper puts forward some countermeasures to reduce the natural gas demand for residential heating in residents of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei. |
