Research On Financing Risk Of PPP Project Of TZ City Railway Line S1

Since China’s reform and opening up,China’s urban rail transit has made great progress.As an important means of transportation,it has the advantages of high speed,convenience,large traffic volume,environmental protection,etc.with the gradual acceleration of China’s urbanization process,urban rail transit has entered a period of rapid development.This paper studies the PPP financing mode of urban rail transit project,studies the development status and existing problems of PPP mode in the field of rail transit in China,and studies the S1 line of Taizhou City railway as a typical case to fully identify the financing risk in the preparatory stage of the project,focusing on the analysis of the application of PPP financing mode and the existing one Some problems,and analysis of the causes of the problems,can provide new ideas for the financing of urban rail transit construction in China,hoping to lead to in-depth research and innovative research on the financing mode.This paper also enriches the innovative research on the PPP mode of urban rail transit financing,especially the quantitative analysis on the risk assessment of PPP project financing mode.In this paper,by referring to the engineering practice and relevant literature,the investment risk factors of PPP project of Taizhou City raiway are divided into seven categories according to their forms,which are political environment risk,economic environment risk,engineering construction risk,technical risk,operation and management risk,environmental protection risk and force majeure risk.In addition,seven risk factors are divided into 25 risk indicators in detail,so as to establish the financing risk evaluation index system of Taizhou City railway PPP project.After listing the advantages and disadvantages of the traditional risk assessment methods,based on the literature review,combined with China’s national conditions,this paper combines machine learning with engineering projects,and applies the support vector machine regression prediction model to the financing risk prediction of Taizhou City railway PPP projects,which can not only realize the intersection between disciplines,but also improve the ability to solve the risk assessment and prediction problems Ability.According to the secondary indicators included in the primary indicators in the index system,the data input variables of the secondary indicators are changed and substituted into the model for calculation,and the change range of risk evaluation value of Taizhou City railway S1 line PPP project corresponding to the change of each input variable is obtained.The evaluation value of financing risk of PPP project of S1 line of TZ City railway has a linear positive correlation with various risk factors.From the perspective of change rate,the financing risk of PPP project of S1 line of TZ City railway is the most sensitive to other risks A7,especially C18.The sensitivity of A4 equipment quality and advanced degree C11 is the lowest.The impact of tax changes in economic and environmental risks is also small.