Wind Power Investment Risk Evaluation Based On Optimal Support Vector Machine

In recent years,China's economy has developed rapidly.With the rapid development of the economy,a series of climate and environmental issues caused by the traditional energy industry are becoming more and more serious.China has intensified its efforts to develop renewable energy to effectively cope with the environmental degradation and global warming.As a more mature way of clean energy generation,wind power generation has become a hot investment direction in the energy industry and it also leads to more and more fierce competition in the wind power industry.China is still in initial stage in equipment technology and management experience.And wind power generation has no competitive advantage compared with traditional thermal power generation in the aspect of levelized cost.So the investment process of the wind power project will be faced with a number of risks.Therefore we need to analyze and assess the risks faced by the project investment in order to make that the investment of wind power projects avoid risks and get economic benefits as much as possible.This paper first introduces the concept of wind power project risk and some basic characteristics of wind power project risk.Then the methods of construction of the risk evaluation index system and some common risk evaluation models are been introduced in the paper.After that,this paper analyzes the basic characteristics of China's wind power project investment,and identifies and analyzes the risks in each stage of the project investment.On the basis of that,a relatively comprehensive evaluation index system for investment risk of wind power project is constructed.Considering the shortcomings of the existing risk assessment model,this paper constructs an investment risk assessment model of wind power project based on the optimization support vector machine.MFO algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of support vector machine to get the support vector machines that meet the requirements and improve the accuracy of support vector machines for risk assessment.At the same time,compared with the traditional grid search method,the model reduced the search time and improved the operation efficiency.The evaluation model is applied to a wind power project investment to verify the feasibility of the model in the paper.In the view of the result of the model evaluation,some suggestions on the cause of the project risk and the countermeasures are put forward.At the end of the article,some innovations and shortcomings in the study are summarized,which provide new ideas and directions for future researches.