Research On Operation Optimization Of Integrated Energy System Considering The Uncertainty Of Source And Load

The Integrated Energy System(IES)realizes the conversion,coordination and complementarity between different energy sources by integrating electricity,heat and gas and other forms of energy,and improves energy utilization efficiency and renewable energy consumption capacity,and has a great influence on the optimization of energy structure.Meanwhile,the uncertainty of source and load such as wind power and load demand has an important influence on the optimization of IES operation.In this context,relevant research had been carried out on IES operation optimization considering the uncertainty of source and load,and the following research contents had been completed.The basic structure and mathematical models of IES were studied.firstly,the IES framework with multiple energy forms including electricity,heat,and gas was built;secondly,mathematical models of power systems,district heating systems,and natural gas systems in IES were analyzed;finally,further analyzed the mathematical models of energy equipment in IES,including energy conversion equipment such as wind power generation devices,cogeneration systems,and energy storage equipment such as battery devices and thermal storage tanks.Through the research and analysis of the architecture of IES and the mathematical models of energy network and energy equipment,the theoretical foundation for IES operation optimization was provided.A scheduling strategy for the electric and heating integrated energy system considering the thermal characteristics of the district heating system and the uncertainty of the source and load was proposed.At first,the thermal characteristics of the district heating system was considered,which was represented by the heat storage characteristics of the heating network and the thermal inertia of the building,then an electric and heating integrated energy system dispatch model was established;the next,the uncertainty of wind power and load demand were considered,and use fuzzy chance constraint programming for dealing with uncertainty,then a scheduling model of an electric and heating integrated energy system based on fuzzy chance constraints was built.Finally,the proposed scheduling strategy was verified by a calculation example.The results showed that the proposed scheduling strategy effectively improved the economy of system and consumption capacity of wind power.Simultaneously,by considering the uncertainty of source and load,decision makers can formulate a scheduling strategy that minimized the economic cost of the system under certain risks.Compared with deterministic scheduling,this scheduling strategy considered the operation of the system under severe conditions and ensures the stability of the system.A distributed scheduling strategy for the electricity-gas integrated energy system considering the uncertainty of the source and load was proposed.First of all,in view of the characteristics that different energy systems belong to different management agencies and only need to interact with the operating data of the coupled equipment during joint dispatch,the electricity-gas integrated energy system was taken as the research object,then the electric-gas centralized dispatching model with gas turbine as the coupling equipment was built,and adopted alternating direction multiplier method(ADMM)to further transform centralized scheduling into distributed scheduling model;in the next part,based on the distributed dispatch,the uncertainty of wind power and electric load demand was considered,and an electric-gas distributed dispatch model considering the uncertainty of source load was framed;eventually,the modified IEEE RTS 24 nodes power system and the Belgium 20 nodes natural gas system were used to construct an electricity-gas interconnection system for verification.The results showed that on the basis of ensuring the economy of the system,distributed scheduling reduced the amount of information exchange between different energy systems and the general dispatch center and ensured the privacy of equipment data in the energy system.In the meantime,combined with the uncertainty of source and load on the basis of distributed scheduling,compared with deterministic scheduling,the scheduling result ensured the stable operation of the system.The integrated energy system scheduling strategy based on the HWES-TCN load forecasting model was proposed.The uncertainty of wind power and load demand depended on a certain extent on its forecasting errors.Therefore,a high-precision forecasting technology can reduce the uncertainty.First,a feature combination based on holt-winters exponential smoothing(HWES)was proposed,and combined with temporal convolution network(TCN),the HWES-TCN short-term power load forecasting framework was constructed;secondly,combined with the IES scheduling model established in the previous article,and used the predicted result of HWES-TCN as the forecasted electric load demand within the scheduling day,an integrated energy system scheduling model based on HWES-TCN was built;finally,the proposed method was verified by an example.The results showed that the prediction result of the high-precision prediction model was closer to the real load,and the dispatch plan based on the prediction result of the model was more in line with the real situation,which ensured the reliability of the dispatch plan.