Demand Prediction And Port Planning Of D Port Area Based On Grey Theory

In this new era of rapid development,the single function of traditional ports has been unable to meet the needs of the shipping industry.In the development process of the port industry,the service quality of the port is further improved by constantly improving the function chain,service chain and value chain.At the same time,the port is transformed and upgraded to the logistics port,trade port and comprehensive hub port to become the largest port of Bohai Bay and even northeast Asia with a long-term goal.D Port is located in the center of Bohai economic circle and Northeast Asian economic circle,which has unique conditions to become a new generation of international trade hub port and has excellent deep water resources that can guarantee the transportation requirements of modern container ships.In recent years,with the continuous development of its cargo throughput,it has achieved rapid growth in many different aspects,such as growth speed,amplitude,duration and development focus.Thus,it is difficult to achieve the prediction of cargo throughput of port d by using traditional prediction methods.Therefore,it is urgent to develop a new prediction method and model combining with the current actual situation of D Port.Basing on above reasons,taking the D Port as an example,this paper expounds the research background,research significance,research status at home and abroad,research purpose and innovation points of the subject,and at the same time,this paper also sorts out and explains the related concepts and theoretical basis of the subject including the location theory and resource endowment theory so as to lay a theoretical foundation for the study of the subject.Secondly,on the basis of the existing literature,the investigation method is used to deeply explore the key contents.According to the development status and changes of D Port,the advantages of the current port development are analyzed and the main problems affecting the development of the port are found,including the weak municipal infrastructure,the lack of support for the initial construction of the port,the rich tourism and ecological resources and the good development and protection needs Coordination,lacking of professionals and investment potential.In addition,according to the economic development status,development trend and ship type of the hinterland of DPort,data research,sorting and research are carried out to ensure the feasibility of the whole research,and specific investigation and analysis are also carried out.On this basis,the throughput of the port and other data are analyzed and predicted.As the throughput of port determines the scale of a port,D Port is a newly developed port area of Q Port,there is a possibility of deviation in the results of traditional prediction methods for the total throughput and various cargo categories.Therefore,this research determines a reasonable prediction method and prediction model by analyzing the factors affecting the throughput of port in China,and uses the Gray Model to predict the throughput of D Port,which is predicted during 2020-2023.Finally,the port planning and design are carried out based on the actual situation of the D Port,and the demand suggestions are proposed from the short-term and long-term periods.In order to ensure the implementation of the suggestions,management measures for port demand realization are put forward from the aspects of continuous optimization of port cargo structure,enlarging advantageous cargo types,strengthening infrastructure construction and improving the adaptability of berth handling capacity,rational layout of port area and active realization of functional complementarity.According to the empirical analysis,effective ways for port management and development are obtained,which is accurate prediction for cargo throughput of the port area during “the 13 th Five-year Plan” and future time to provide a reference,and also to explore and promote the sustainable development and construction of ports in China.