Research On Prediction Method Of Seismic Direct Economic Loss Of Building Complex

Earthquake is a natural disaster with the strongest impact on human society.With the continuous development of China’s financial reform,the way of using catastrophe insurance to bear earthquake risk is in the ascendant.However,how to scientifically evaluate the direct economic loss of earthquake is a basic problem that perplexes the development of the industry.Based on the above social demand,aiming at the subject matter of housing earthquake insurance,the dissertation puts forward a set of direct economic loss prediction method for regional building earthquake.The purpose of the method is to break through the "last mile" between structural engineering and financial insurance,and to transform the theoretical results of performance-based seismic design into regional seismic risk assessment.On this basis,the overall restoration strategy of the building is formed according to certain principles.Finally,the risk of direct economic loss caused by earthquake is predicted.The method proposed in the dissertation takes the idea of reverse deduction as the main line.By the use of UAV survey,the geometric information of regional residents is obtained.By mapping the information into the database,the earthquake damage risk in the area can be quickly predicted.On the whole,the dissertation is divided into three levels: component,building unit,building complex.(1)Component: obtaining the appropriate repair methodAiming at the columns,walls and beams of structural members,as well as the filling walls and equipment pipelines of non-structural components,the dissertation selects the applicable repair method by taking into account the performance status of components and the characteristics of the application scene.Through the regression statistics of the engineering quantity formula of each repair method,a set of rapid calculation method of direct economic loss of components is put forward in the dissertation.(2)Building unit: evaluating the direct economic loss of single building under earthquakeCombined with the practical experience of engineering,the dissertation puts forward the merging method of repair method,which can form the repair strategy under certain objectives and make the measurement of direct economic loss scientific and reasonable.In the dissertation,by describing the probability distribution of seismic risk and combining with the fitting of Weibull distribution to the distribution of direct economic loss of single building,the probability distribution of direct economic loss of single building is constructed,and the expected value of direct economic loss of each cycle year is obtained.(3)Building complex: predicting direct economic losses of earthquakesBy integrating UAV survey and 3D reconstruction technology,the dissertation forms a technical scheme to obtain regional architectural geometric information conveniently.The fuzzy recognition method based on weighted hamming distance is used to match the regional residential building with the database,and the loss expectation of each house can be obtained.Then the overall direct economic loss of the region can also be further predicted.By the empirical analysis of a typical urban region in Guangzhou,the dissertation proves that the prediction method proposed can systematically solve the whole process of survey,identification,matching and prediction of residential building complex in a certain area.The dissertation makes a useful attempt to realize the connection between structural engineering and financial insurance.It not only provides a reference for the premium pricing of earthquake catastrophe insurance,but also provides basic data for public earthquake prevention and disaster reduction decision-making.