| Combined with the new requirements of the "13th Five-Year Plan" for the transportation industry,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region needs to adjust its freight transportation structure and seek new ways suitable for the current transportation market economy.With the rapid growth of high value-added cargo transportation demand,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,relying on its rail transit network advantages,has been equipped to develop high-speed railway freight transport conditions.Based on this,it is particularly important to plan the high-speed rail freight travel mode in the region reasonably.In this context,from the perspective of economic feasibility,this paper takes the main freight area of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as the research object,and makes the following research on the development of high-speed railway freight transportation in the region:(1)Analysed the current situation of research related to high-speed rail freight at home and abroad,clear the shortcomings of the existing research,provide a theoretical basis for the follow-up research.Combined with the basic situation of the scale of freight transportation and the volume structure of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the main freight area of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is divided and the problems in the development of freight transportation in the region are put forward.(2)Defined the concepts related to high-speed rail freight and high-speed rail freight travel mode,introduced the development of high-speed rail freight at home and abroad,and then analyzed the advantages of high-speed rail freight from the aspects of low-carbon environmental protection and fast and convenient,and finally analyzed the influence factors of the choice of high-speed rail freight mode in the main freight area of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.(3)Defined the economic feasibility of high-speed rail freight and analyzed the influencing factors of the economic feasibility.Forecasted the market demand of one of the influencing factors,sorted out the freight demand forecasting model and method,combined with the characteristics of high-speed rail freight demand forecasting to form the prediction idea,used the principal component analysis method to analyze and reduce the dimensions of the factors influencing the demand of high-speed rail freight,and then constructed the relevant linear regression model,grey prediction model,combination forecast model,logit share rate model and OD distribution prediction model,which provided basis for the calculation of OD demand for high-speed rail freight.(4)Combined with the data of the nodes of the main freight area of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the OD freight volume of high-speed rail in this area is calculated according to the prediction idea,combined with the demand of high-speed freight,transport capacity of high-speed freight operation mode and transportation revenue to measure economic feasibility,selected the inter-node city of the region high-speed rail freight travel mode,and provide reference and advice for the development of high-speed rail freight in the region. |
