| Reservoir dams not only bring huge benefits to the national economy,but also pose a huge threat to the lives and property of downstream residents.Once the reservoir dam crashes,the consequences will be immeasurable.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to analyze and study the risk of dam-break life and establish an analysis method for dam-break life loss of reservoirs.The analysis of dam-break life loss mainly includes: dam-break flood severity analysis,dam-break risk population analysis,and dam-break risk population vulnerability analysis;in the dam-break flood severity analysis,the existing dam-break flood severity calculation model involves parameters There are many models,which are complicated to model,and are not suitable for large-scale rapid simulation.In the analysis of dam-break risk populations,there is a lack of research on the spatial distribution of risk populations.It is directly used in the analysis of dam-break life loss in China,which needs to be corrected according to China’s national conditions.In view of the above problems,combined with the existing research results,this article mainly analyzes and analyzes the loss of life from dam failure in the following three aspects.(1)Construct a two-dimensional coupled dam-break flood severity assessment model.First,based on the Arc GIS software,using the river data in the study area to refine the terrain in the two-dimensional floodplain,and at the same time superimpose the river data and the terrain data to provide high-precision complete terrain data for model building.Second,based on the HEC-The one-and two-dimensional coupled model established by RAS can simulate the evolution of dam-break floods in rivers and floodplains.The calculation results are accurate and the modeling requirements are low.It is suitable for the study of large-scale and long river sections.Provide timely and accurate water regime data.(2)Construct a spatial distribution model of dam break risk population.Based on the method of multi-source data fusion,using night light data and land use data that have significant correlation with population distribution,fully consider the spatial distribution characteristics of the risk population within the inundation range,and start from the mechanism of dam failure life loss to determine the dam failure inundation range.The number of at-risk populations within this area provides accurate at-risk population data for dam-break life loss analysis.(3)Analysis of mortality rate of population at risk of dam break.First,summarize the historical data to establish a set of factors affecting the dam-break life loss;second,study the impact of each influencing factor on mortality;finally,revise the proposed value of the risk population mortality to establish a risk population death that is consistent with China’s actual risk population Rate calculation method to analyze the loss of life of dam break. |