Key Technologies Of Dam-Break Risk Assessment Research And Application On Earth-rock Dam

Dam safety is of vital importance to the national economy and the people’s livelihood. There is a large number of earth-rock dam in China, and also has a certain number of earth-rock dam break accidents happened every year. In order to strengthen the dam safety management, master the status of dam safety comprehensively and scientifically, it is urgent to introduce dam risk assessment methods and techniques, while domestic dam risk management level is still in the primary stage, numerous key techniques need to be studie in depth, such as the calculation method of dam-break probability, dam-break flood evolution numerical simulation method. Based on the characteristics of the reservoir dam and the development level of economy and society in Jiangxi Province, this paper put forward a method to estimate the dam-break probability and dam-break flood evolution numerical simulation, established a dam-break loss risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and applied in the engineering practice. The main research contents are as follows:1、The establishing of the dam-break risk evluation system on earth-rock dam. This paper analysed the advantages and disadvantage of engineering safety evaluation method, and started with two aspects of risk analysis and risk evaluation, studied the risk identification, risk estimate method, the risk criteria, and the method to determine the risk degree, acordingly constructed dam-break risk evaluation system on earth-rock dam.2、The study of dam-break probability calculation method. The dam-break probability calculation method is studied and put forward by building an event tree based on dam-break mode and path.3、The study of dam-break flood evolution numerical simulation. Studied the caculation method of earth-rock dam breach width and discharge, established dam-break flood evolution model,and achieved the related numerical simulation in River2D model software.4、The evaluation of dam-break loss risk. Put forward the risk calculation method an risk criteria about the dam-break loss of life, economic loss and social environmental loss, and introduced fuzzy mathematical evaluation, constructed dam-break consequences fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.5、The engineering application research. Taking DaYu county Youluokou reservoir in Jiangxi province for instance, applied the above risk assessment theory method to comprehensive anaysis and calculation dam-break mode, path, probability, breach flood, dam-break flood evolution and dam-break loss assessment, the result verified the science and efficiency of the proposed methods in this paper.