Hub Ports Location Problem Under Demand And Cost Uncertainties

With the development of the world economy,increasing shipping demand has promoted the formation and development of the hub-and-spoke network.As an important node,the choice of hub ports is particularly necessary.The continuous development of the shipping network and the occurrence of various uncertain events have brought many uncertain factors and affected the structure of the shipping network.Considering the huge construction cost of the hub ports,it is very necessary to study the hub ports selection under uncertain factors.With the implementation of the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" initiative,the European shipping market has gradually changed.China's port investment in the European region will also affect the European shipping network structure.Therefore,this paper focuses on the selection of hub ports under uncertain factors for European container ports.Aiming at the hub ports location problem in the hub-and-spoke network,multiple models are constructed according to the law of data changes considering the uncertainty of transportation demand and cost in the container shipping network.According to the transportation links of the hub-and-spoke network,a cost function is used to characterize the transportation costs between hub ports,and a deterministic model for hub ports selection is constructed.At the same time,considering the discrete characteristics of shipping demand,a stochastic model with uncertain demand is constructed for hub ports selection.Based on the actual data and the unpredictable characteristics of transportation costs,a MINMAX method is used to construct a hub ports location model with uncertain costs.Then combine the two to build a hub ports location model with transportation demand and cost uncertainties.The actual data of the European container transportation network is used to verify the model,solve the optimal choice of the hub ports under various uncertain factors,and make a comparative analysis of the results to provide a reference for the liner company to optimize the route.The innovative results of this article:(1)Use the cost function to represent the transportation cost between hub ports.Unlike the general use of discount coefficients to express the economies of scale of transportation between hub ports,the use of a fitting function will reduce the errors caused by the discount coefficients and improve the accuracy of the model.(2)The stochastic model of uncertain transport demand,the uncertain model of transport cost constructed by the MINMAX method,and the model of demand and cost uncertainties,have been made to study the hub ports location problem with demand and cost uncertainties.This will fill the lack of the research on uncertain factors in hub ports location problem.