| In recent years,the land island transportation system has gradually become an indispensable part of China's grassroots transportation system.Since the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan",China's economy has entered a new round of rapid development.Land transportation is an important guarantee for the national economic development of our islands.It is not only a "government service project" that benefits people's livelihood,but also promotes the development of other industries.Well-developed waterway transportation and port terminal facilities are the key to the development of industrial economy and tourism.The development goal of Changhai County is to build an internationally renowned archipelago-type tourist town,making Changhai a tourist resort,a modern marine ranch,and an ecologically livable town.To achieve this development goal,land passenger transportation is the key,and it is inseparable from the port terminal Development and construction.At the same time,Ludao Passenger Transport has a foundation,promotion and leading role in the economic development of Changhai County.With the rapid development of the "island tour" industry,the Ludao Transport Terminal in Changhai County has the problems of overcrowded berths,high investment costs,berth facilities that have been in disrepair for many years,low efficiency of terminal operations,and the inability to invest in the construction of berths.In this paper,the system dynamics method is used to study the supply and demand matching of the berths of the Ludao Transportation Terminal in Changhai County.The purpose is to study the influencing factors of the supply and demand matching of the terminal berths,and provide relevant reference for the future development and investment decisions of the terminal berths.On the basis of summarizing the current research situation at home and abroad,this paper analyzes the applicability of system dynamics in berth supply and demand matching based on the actual situation of Changhai County.Secondly,through the analysis of the passenger flow of the terminal in Changhai County and the analysis of the current situation of the terminal berths,The influencing factors of the demand and supply of berths in the wharf of Changhai County were determined,and the Granger causality test was carried out on the causality of the relevant influencing factors.Then,based on the feedback mechanism of social and economic development,demand,supply,and investment,a flow chart of the berth supply and demand matching system is constructed,and the parameters are analyzed using regression analysis,correction functions,expert consultation,empirical valuation,and consulting a large number of documents Calculate and determine the equation expressions between variables,and conduct behavior and structure tests on the model.In the application part of the model,analyze the changes of berth demand and supply under different variable changes from the demand side and the supply side through scenario simulation.The simulation results show that under the current management level and berth utilization rate,the berth supply capacity of the terminal in Changhai County is lower than the passenger transportation demand at present and in the next ten years.The transportation demand of land islands in Changhai County is mainly affected by the tourist traffic.The local passenger traffic will not increase greatly with the change of regional GDP and total population,but the tourist traffic will be greatly affected by national income and tourism development policies.;Government investment policy,management level and berth utilization rate have a great impact on the berth supply capacity of the terminal,these factors are also influencing factors of berth supply and demand matching. |
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