Study On Concession Period Decision Of PPP Project For Charging Infrastructure Based On System Dynamics

In the process of the development of new energy electric vehicles,charging infrastructure is an important guarantee for its development and application.Due to the large investment and wide distribution of charging infrastructure,its construction is relatively lagging behind.PPP model of public-private cooperation can effectively utilize social capital,reduce the financial burden of the government and improve the operation efficiency of the project.Therefore,PPP mode is gradually applied to the construction and operation of new energy vehicle charging infrastructure.In the early stage of the project,the concession period is an important parameter for the decision-making of the government and the project company.In order to achieve better public-private cooperation and promote the harmonious development of new energy vehicles,this paper studies the concession period decision-making of the new energy vehicle charging facilities PPP project,with a view to providing decision-making reference for the government departments and project companies to determine the charging infrastructure PPP project.Firstly,this paper collects and summarizes the literature and data of the current PPP project of charging infrastructure at home and abroad,and summarizes the research status of charging infrastructure,PPP concession period decision-making method and system dynamics(SD).The applicability of system dynamics method to PPP concession period decision of charging infrastructure is analyzed,which provides theoretical basis and methodological basis for subsequent research.Secondly,by identifying the relevant factors affecting the concession period of charging infrastructure,considering the relationship between the factors comprehensively,the causality diagram of the factors affecting the concession period under PPP mode is drawn,and six feedback loops and the cause tree of the related factors are analyzed.On the basis of causality diagram and considering the attributes of variables,the stock flow diagram is determined,the SD model of the concession period of charging infrastructure PPP project is constructed,and the equation consistent with the actual situation is established.Finally,taking the actual case of charging infrastructure PPP project as the research object,using system dynamics analysis software Vensim DSS to simulate and analyze the case,the theoretical concession period is obtained and compared with the actual results.By adjusting the relevant parameters,the impact of construction cost,service fee pricing and annual charging amount on the project concession period is simulated,and the important process of each factor is finally obtained.The validation results show that the SD model can effectively reflect the actual situation,and the simulation under three scenarios is set up for comparative analysis,which provides a reference for the concession period decision-making of charging infrastructure PPP project.