Power Load Forecasting Based On Land Use Change And Load Density Risk

With the continuous development of urban society and economy,urban power is facing more and more risk factors.Traditional load forecasting methods can not guarantee the accuracy of forecasting;however,scientific urban load forecasting is of great significance to urban power planning and supply.Firstly,this paper analyses the risk factors affecting the fluctuation of power load.From the perspective of spatial load,the factors affecting the fluctuation of urban power load mainly depend on land use change and load density per unit area.Secondly,based on the basic principle of cellular automata and considering the risk factors,the law and model of land use change are established.From the perspective of land use change,proposed land use changes and cell risk factors,combined with the geographic information system(GIS)technology,and puts forward the method of land classification changes.At the same time,considering the impact of risk factors on load density fluctuation,the power load forecasting model is established on the basis of land use change and load density risk analysis.Finally,taking a specific city as an example,the case study shows that the model is scientific.