Study On Parking Mode Choice Based On Behavioral Decision Theory

According to the parking problems analysis,this study points out that main cause of parking problems is the contradiction between supply and demand,which result in static and dynamic traffic problems in cities,and parking behavior analysis can be used to alleviate the contradiction effectively.The existing parking behavior researches are mainly based on random utility theory,prospect theory and regret theory,which are parts of behavioral decision theory.All decision makers are assumed to follow only one decision rule,such as utility maximum rule,prospect maximum and regret minimum,and researchers are not consider the heterogeneity of decision behavior in above researches.The heterogeneity means that different decision makers will follow different decision rules in same decision scenario,or same decision maker will follow different decision rules in different decision scenarios.This study explores the heterogeneity of decision-making behavior in parking mode choice from the perspective of scenario dependence,aiming at alleviating the parking problems in cities and reducing the impact on dynamic traffic.Firstly,through the domestic and foreign literatures,the main influencing factors and research methods in parking choice researches are summarized.The parking rate,parking distance and waiting time are choosed as parking service characteristic variables,The random utility theory,prospect theory and regret theory are used to study parking choice behavior.Taking the above factors as variables,questionnaires are designed for different research methods,and data collection carried out in Urumqi using a combination of online and field investigations.Secondly,the value function parameters are re-calibrated due to they are affected by geographical and research issues.In addition,considering the influence of personal attributes on decision-making behavior and the advantages of heterogeneous reference points including individual differences,a personal attribute parameter is introduced in prospect theory reference point,and the prospect theory choice models with homogeneous reference point and heterogeneous reference point are established,respectively.The comparison results show that the prospect theory choice model with heterogeneous reference point can better describe the decision-making behavior of decision makers.Finally,considering the more flexible mixed logit model and the simpler random random regret minimization model,this study establishes a mixed logit model,a prospect theory choice model with heterogeneous reference points and a classical random regret minimization model.And the absolute error is used to analyze the description degree of three parking choice models.Results show that the models based on the bounded rational hypothesis can better describe decision-making behavior.The prediction choice results of same decision maker in different scenarios indicate that decision rules followed by same decision maker change with the decision scenario,that is,the decision rules followed by same decision maker are scenario dependent;the prediction choice results of different decision makers in same scenario indicate that decision rules followed by different decision makers in same scenario are not identical,that is,the decision rules followed by different decision makers in same scenario are heterogeneous.