Research On The Impact Of Rnewable Energy Policies On Power Generation Industry

With the development of China's economy,the shortage of traditional energy sources and environmental pollution caused by the consumption of fossil fuels have become increasingly prominent.And the development of renewable energy including wind and solar power would be one of the principal means to achieve this target.Although China's renewable energy industry has grown rapidly since FIT policy was implemented in China in 2006,but it is also facing some problems.The phenomenon of wind power,solar power and hydro power curtailment has become a prominent issue that restricts the development of clean energy and the rapid expansion of renewable energy has led to an increasing gap in subsidies.The market-oriented RPS policy might contribute to alleviate the current problems and China has already tried out the issuance and voluntary subscription of green power certificates across country in 2017.The Chinese government is actively promoting the construction of a renewable portfolio standard system.In this paper,we apply the CGE model to quantitatively estimate the impact of renewable energy policy in China.Specifically,the model consists of 17 production sectors,including six power energy production sectors.Additionally,6 policy scenarios of which illustrate different renewable energy policy are then demonstrated in this paper.Based on the 2012 social accounting matrix,we employ the CGE model to evaluate the impact of renewable energy policy on macroeconomics,power generation structure,power demand and other aspects.The followings are the major conclusions obtained from the above empirical analysis.First,development of renewable energy will have negative impacts on the macro-economy,with 0.01-0.17% on GDP in 2030.For each additional percentage point in the share of renewable energy generation in 2030,the loss of GDP would increase by approximately 9.11 billion RMB.Second,promoting the development of renewable energy might help to optimize China's energy system.For electricity generation,under policy scenarios conventional thermal power is reduced by 10.25-48.36% or 665-3136 TWh relative to BAU scenario in 2030 while renewable power will increase by 8.71-53.11% or 227-1382 TWh.Certainly,the proportion of renewable energy in the total power generation should be approximately 34% to achieve the government target for non-fossil fuels to account for approximately 20% of the primary energy consumption by 2030.Finally,as the largest carbon emissions source sector,the variations of carbon emissions in power industry have a significant impact on the completion of national emission reduction targets.