Research On The Sustainable Development Of Coal-electricity Industry Based On Economic New Normal

As the basic energy industry of our country,the coal-electricity industry has been developing rapidly and has made a great contribution to the industrial economy.However,after China's economy entered the new normal,the development speed of industrial economy has changed from high-speed to medium medium-high-speed and the energy demand decreased.The coal-electricity production capacity was overcapacity and the contradiction between coal and electricity was deepened day by day.As a result,the coal-electricity economy needs to adapt to the new normal,remove the excess capacity,alleviate the contradiction between coal and electricity and realize sustainable development.There are two obstacles to the sustainable development of the coal-electricity industry.First,the contradiction between coal and electricity is sharp.Because the coal has been priced by the market and the electricity's price has been formulated by the state,The phenomenon of "market coal" and "planned electricity" formed.The price of thermal coal is getting higher and higher because it is not controlled by the government.The cost pressure of most power enterprises is too high and most power enterprises choose power rationing.This phenomenon affects the cooperation between coal enterprises and electricity enterprises,and restricts the sustainable development of coal-electricity economy.Second,under the new normal state,there are some problems in the development of coal-electricity economy,such as excess capacity,serious pollution,waste of coal resources and so on.Based on the double resistance of coal-electricity industry and the angle of industrial organization,this paper adopts SCP paradigm form and system dynamics method to study the coal-electricity problems under the new normal state and its solving measures.First of all,the external environment of coal-electricity industry is analyzed by PEST,and the various problems existing in coal and electricity industry under the new normal state are obtained.In addition,SCP paradigm is used to analyze the industrial organization structure of coal-electricity industry under the new normal state of economy and it is concluded that the high price of the thermal coal is due to the different structures of coal and electricity market.In the end,by constructing the system dynamics model of coal-electricity industry,taking pollution index as environmental protection index,coal and electricity output value as economic index,coal reserves as environmental protection index,coal output as productivity index,four scenarios of coal-electricity industry development are designed.Through simulation and dynamic evaluation of each scenario,it is concluded that only by coordinating the proportion of economic investment,environmental protection investment,technology investment and employee treatment investment,can we achieve the goal of controlling production capacity,saving resources and reducing pollution.Therefore,it is believed that the sustainable development mode of the coal-electricity economy needs to alleviate the contradiction between coal and electricity.It aslo needs to increase the invest of technology and environmental,reduce the pollution,save resources and control production capacity.