Research On Investment Decision Of Construction Enterprises Participating In PPP Projects In Colleges And Universities

With the continuous development of society,China proposes to promote the development of the field of higher education reform,colleges and universities expand,expand the school space,large-scale construction of new campuses.New campus projects often have a long construction period and large investment,and most of them belong to public education projects.If we rely solely on the input of government funds,it will not only increase the financial pressure on the government but also not conducive to the realization of the investment objectives,under this background,PPP model began to be introduced into the construction projects of colleges and universities.The introduction of social capital investment,construction and operation through the PPP model can greatly reduce the financial pressure of the government.Design,Construction,Operation and maintenance of University projects The level requirement is higher,the social capital side has more professional technology than the government side in this field,can guarantee the high level construction and management of the project,therefore,the PPP model is encouraged to popularize in the construction project of colleges and universities.However,due to the lack of domestic research and case data on this kind of projects,there are some investment risks and lack of reference for the construction enterprises as the main investors in the investment decision-making of this kind of projects.Therefore,from the point of view of construction enterprise as the main body of investment,the risk factors of PPP project investment decision-making in colleges and universities were identified and analyzed,the investment risk system of PPP project in colleges and universities was established.The decision-making model and Monte Carlo method were used to simulate the economic indexes of different investment decision-making.Finally,the simulation results were analyzed to determine whether the project is worth investing or not.First of all,through reading a large number of policies,literature materials,the concept of PPP model,the development of construction enterprises and the status of participating in PPP projects,the application of PPP model in the field of colleges and universities,investment decision-making,and so on.The feasibility and necessity of participating in PPP projects by construction enterprises as investment subjects were analyzed in order to provide a theoretical basis for the application of PPP model in college projects.Secondly,taking the university project as the research object,this paper analyzed the risk of the construction enterprise participating in the investment decision of the university PPP project as the main investment body,and maked a preliminary list of the risk factors including 7 first-level indexes and 26 second-level indexes.Thirdly,in the form of questionnaire survey,the main risk factors that influence the investment decision-making of this kind of project were obtained by the experts'score,and on the basis of the questionnaire survey of the main body of risk sharing,determine the factors to be shared by the government among the major risk factors for investment decision-making in PPP projects.Finally,on the premise that the government shares part of the risk,the main risk factors were quantified,and on this basis,the investment decision-making model of the PPP project in colleges and universities was established.Finally,through the analysis of the case of PPP project in a university,according to the main risk factors,the probability distribution was predicted,and the net present value of the project was analyzed by CRYSTAL BALL software.The internal rate of return and the dynamic payback period were simulated by Monte Carlo,and the sensitivity analysis was carried out.The simulation results were analyzed,and the reliability of the model was verified,which provided a reference for the investment decision of the social capital side.