OD Matrix Prediction Method For Urban Freight Transportation

Urban freight transport is a logistics activity that meets the needs of urban social and economic development and plays an important role in ensuring the normal operation of urban production and life.In recent years,with the rise of e-commerce and the need to reduce inventory and improve customer service levels in logistics management,urban freight organizations have developed,multi-variety,low-volume,multi-batch JIT distribution and direct distribution,home distribution and other development trends.Changes in urban freight demand have led to a significant increase in urban road freight vehicles,exacerbating urban traffic congestion and environmental pollution.Therefore,scientific and rational planning of urban freight transportation has become an urgent measure.The research and forecast of urban freight flow and freight flow direction is the premise and basis of urban freight planning.However,the current research on urban freight demand forecasting tends to predict the total amount and flow direction of urban freight demand,and lacks research on the spatial structure and distribution characteristics of urban freight demand.Moreover,in the aspect of urban freight flow forecasting,it is mostly qualitative analysis based on the current flow of goods to obtain the flow of goods in the planning year,lacking quantitative analysis.In urban freight,traffic and flow can be characterized by the urban freight OD matrix.Therefore,the analysis and prediction of the urban freight OD matrix is accurate,which determines whether the urban freight planning is scientific and reasonable,and is also the key to formulating various decisions and the layout of the city freight station.The main research work of this paper is as follows:Firstly,the research on the mechanism of urban freight demand is carried out,and combined with the characteristics of passenger transport demand,the characteristics of urban freight traffic demand are compared and analyzed to prepare for subsequent modeling.Because the characteristics of urban freight transportation are different from the characteristics of urban passenger transportation,this paper puts forward the concept and division principle of urban freight transportation community,and uses the method of fuzzy clustering analysis to realize the scientific division of urban freight transportation community by MATLAB programming.Then based on the "four-stage method" freight demand forecasting model,the urban freight OD distribution matrix is predicted.Through the comparative analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the freight volume forecasting method,this paper selects the gray forecasting method,establishes the gray forecasting model of urban freight,and predicts the total amount of urban freight generated by MATLAB programming.Then,the regression analysis of industrial structure measurement and unit GDP freight generation is carried out,and the prediction model of freight transportation community based on industrial structure measurement is established,and the economic development data of the planning year is used to predict the amount of urban freight transportation community;The model research improves the gravitation model according to the characteristics of urban freight transportation,proposes the concept of urban freight transportation community attraction degree,and establishes the urban freight transportation community attraction prediction model.Finally,the traditional double-constrained gravity model is improved by introducing the adjustment coefficient,and the urban freight double-constrained gravity distribution model is established.Taking Lanzhou as an example,the OD matrix of Lanzhou city freight is predicted by MATLAB software programming,and verifled by verification.The prediction error of the double-constrained gravity model is smaller than that of the traditional double-constrained gravity model,which embodies the superiority of the model.