Analysis Model For Risk Prevention And Control Of Electricity Purchasing And Selling For Retailers Under Multi-dimensional Electricity Market

With the increasing intensity of the reform of the electric power system,the retailers as the newly generated power trading subject appears in front of people's eyes.Due to the large scale of power market and the complicated relationship among the stakeholders in power transaction,the retailers face great risks.This paper takes the multi-dimensional power market as the background and retailers as the main body to explore how to control the risks faced by the retailers in the purchasing and selling of electricity.Firstly,the paper sorts out the purchasing and selling of electricity transactions in the electricity market environment.The trading entities in the electricity market environment are mainly divided into power generation enterprises,transmission and distribution companies,retailers and market users.The operation of the electricity market will be carried out around four types of entities.As the main body of this paper,we focus on the situation of retailers,including the classification of retailers,the way of buying and selling electricity,business models and development status,in order to better identify the risks faced by retailers,and make the market of Guangdong as an example.Secondly,the paper analyzes the risk of electricity purchasing and electricity selling of retailers in the electricity market.This paper identifies the electricity purchasing risk and electricity selling risk of the retailers to clarify the risk factors.The F-AHP is also briefly described as the theoretical basis for the risk assessment of retailers.The fuzzy value interval of the factors will be determined according to the expert score.Finally,the F-AHP is used to evaluate the purchasing and selling of electricity in retailers.It is found that the electricity purchasing and electricity selling of retailers in the electricity market are in a higher risk category.Thirdly,a risk prevention and control model for the electricity purchasing and electricity selling of retailers was constructed.The electricity purchasing and electricity selling combination model of retailers in the electricity market was constructed.The combination model of purchasing and selling of electricity optimized under the conditional risk value theory was constructed.The Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the example,and the conclusion showed that the proportion of medium-long term bilateral transactions can be appropriately increased can reduce the risk of the retailers.Finally,a strategic analysis of the electricity selling risk control of the retailers was conducted.There are three aspects to control the risks:optimizing the retailer's different electricity purchasing strategies,enhancing the whole process management strategy of the retailer's purchasing and selling of electricity,and reducing the selling strategy of the retailer's purchasing and selling of electricity.From different dimensions,the risk control strategy was proposed to the retailers to adapt to the multi-dimensional power market,which played a positive role in the risk control and production increase of the retailers.