Driving Factors And Key Technologies Impact Assessment Of Future Western Power Grid Development

With the rapid development of the western power grid and the large-scale improvement of renewable energy such as wind energy and solar energy,large-capacity long-distance transmission of new energy has become the main way to solve the growth of electricity demand and the depletion of fossil energy.On the other hand,with the development of advanced technologies such as HVDC transmission technology and new energy access,more technical options are provided for the future development of the western power grid.In this context and form,it is of great significance to study the driving factors and key technology impact assessment of the future development of the western power grid.The research results will provide technical support for the large-scale new energy export and the future development mode of the western power grid in China.In this paper,driving factors analysis,transmission scheme evaluation and key technology impact evaluation are the main research directions.Driving factors affecting the development of Western power grid are analyzed,evaluation methods suitable for planning scheme selection are discussed,and the importance of key technologies is studied.Specific research contents are as follows:In this paper,the power demand of the western power grid is the standard to measure the development of the western power grid.There are many kinds of factors affecting the power demand.In view of the fact that the existing research has not clearly pointed out the main factors affecting the power demand,this paper uses the method of stepwise regression and grey correlation to achieve the quantitative ranking of the influencing factors.Taking GDP,the proportion of secondary industry,electricity price,power investment,energy efficiency,carbon emissions and total population as influencing factors samples,the factors that have significant impact on power demand are extracted by stepwise regression analysis,and the influence degree of each significant factor is quantitatively calculated by grey correlation analysis,and the ranking of influencing factors is completed.The results show that carbon emissions and electricity prices are significant factors affecting electricity demand,and the combination of stepwise regression and grey correlation can better realize the analysis of factors affecting electricity demand.Aiming at the problem that it is difficult to quantify the subjective and objective weights of each index in transmission network planning,this paper presents an evaluation method of transmission network planning scheme,which combines improved analytic hierarchy process,CRITIC method and approximate ideal method.In this method,the subjective and objective weights of each index are calculated by improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and CIRITIC method,and then the comprehensive weights are obtained by combining the two weights.Secondly,the relative closeness degree of each planning scheme and the ideal solution is calculated by using the approximation ideal method,and the relative closeness degree is taken as the criterion to rank the planning schemes.This method of comprehensive consideration of subjective and objective weights effectively utilizes the objective information of index data,and fully takes into account the important role of subjective evaluation and decision-making in actual power grid planning.The validity of the proposed evaluation method is verified by a typical IEEE Garver-6 node system commonly used in transmission network planning.Aiming at the problem that it is difficult to quantify the impact degree of each key technology in the future western power grid planning,the key technology affecting the development of the western power grid is determined by means of expert qualitative analysis and literature research,and the impact value system is established.After comparing and analyzing the particularity of the object,the evaluation model of influencing factor matrix method is put forward.On the basis of comprehensive application of Delphi method,two-dimensional matrix method and Borda ordinal value method,the quantitative research on the importance of key technologies is realized,which provides powerful data support and decision support for later power grid planning.