Coupling Analysis And Prediction Of Water-energy Nexus In Beijing

With the growth of Beijing's population and the development of urbanization,Water resources and Energy security issues have received more and more attention.In the past decade,the analysis of scientific issues in the "water-energy Nexus" has become a topic of increasing academic concern.In recent years,the contradiction between the insufficient supply of resources and the increasing demand in Beijing has become a serious problem in the development process.The water-energy relationship in urban activities poses a challenge to the coordination of urban water resources and the management of energy resources,hindering the sustainable use of water resources and energy.Taking Beijing as an example,this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the coupling relationship between water and energy based on system dynamics:the water-energy consumption in Beijing is defined as mixed water/energy,which is divided into direct water/energy and indirect water/energy.Firstly,all types of water resources and energy consumption in Beijing from 2001 to 2017 were evaluated.On this basis,based on the process of social water cycle and the development and utilization of different energy resources,the energy consumption of each link,such as water intake,water supply,water transmission and distribution,water use,drainage and sewage reuse,as well as the water consumption of coal,oil,heat,electricity and other different energy sources in the production process,were measured quantitatively in Beijing from 2001 to 2017.Finally,a system dynamics model is constructed to simulate the coupling relationship between water and energy in Beijing,and to predict the consumption of water and energy in Beijing from 2020 to 2030,as well as the influence of technology,economy and policy on it.On this basis,relevant policy Suggestions are put forward for the coordinated development of water and energy in Beijing.The results show that in the past 17 years,Beijing has been seriously short of water and energy,and the production of water-energy is far less than the consumption.By the end of 2017,the total water resources in Beijing was 2.98 billion m3,while the total water consumption reached 3.95 billion m3,and the water consumption increased by 12%in 17 years.The amount of energy consumed in the social water cycle reached 1.621 million tons of standard coal,accounting for 3%of the total energy consumption,an increase of nearly 30%in the past 17 years.Over the past 17 years,Beijing's energy production has increased by 23.3 percent to 37.335 million tons of standard coal,and its water consumption has increased by 67.8 percent to 71.328 million tons of standard coal.Research shows that with the development of water resources development technology,energy consumption is also increasing,and with the increase of energy exploitation intensity,the demand for water resources is also increasing,water-energy is a complex system of mutual relations.System dynamics simulation prediction results show that in 2020-2030,Beijing's urbanization,industrialization development model will lead to the mixed water/energy quantity still rise,a direct water/energy and indirect water/energy rose 23.2%,2.0%,29.2%and 18.2%,and the influence of different factors on the mixed water/energy level is different.The amount of water and energy will become an important factor restricting the sustainable economic development of Beijing.Based on the above analysis,this paper puts forward relevant policy Suggestions,and promotes the coordinated development of Beijing's water resources and energy by focusing on the synergistic relationship between water resources and energy,attaching importance to water-saving and energy saving,controlling the amount of water energy in energy-consuming industries and developing energy-saving and water-saving technologies,so as to achieve the goal of water-saving and energy saving.