Optimal Allocation Of Land Use Based On Flood Disaster Risk

Flood disaster is the most serious disaster that occurs frequently in the world,usually have a wide range of hazards,and affect people's property life people's property seriously.Flood risk assessment is one of the important means to study flood disasters,and provides a basis for the planning of regional flood disaster monitoring and prediction,flood control and disaster mitigation measures.This paper takes Wu'an City of Hebei Province as the study area,based on the theory of disaster risk system and the local actual situation,selects the hazard,sensitivity and prevention capability ability of flood disaster as assessment aspects.There are nine evaluation indicators of social economic factors such as population density and economic level.The flood risk assessment is obtained by using weighted comprehensive evaluation method and the functions of GIS platform.The relevant driving factors are selected to construct a land use change driving system by using the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods.Based on the flood risk assessment results and land use driving mechanism,using CLUE-S model to simulate the future land use pattern of Wu'an City,then provide a basis for land use management within the city.Results indicate that:(1)Constructing a flood risk assessment system for Wu'an City and verifying the evaluation results.The regional risk differences are more obvious and the flood risk distribution is generally characterized by the gradual decline of the high-risk areas in central and southwestern areas;From the administrative division,some areas of towns such as Wu'an Town,Yangshuo Town and Paihuai Town are at high risk level,and the risk of flood in the north,northwest and eastern towns is low;Using the historical disaster data to verify,the flood assessment results are consistent with the actual situation,which can provide relevant decision-making basis for departments.(2)The driving system of land use change in Wu'an City was constructed and testing the fitting results.From the three aspects of distance factors,socio-economic factors and natural geographical factors,a total of 10 driving factors were selected to construct land use change driving system such as elevation,slope,aspect,GDP,the population density and other distance factors,then logistic regression analysis and ROC curve test were used to test fitting result.The results show that the locality has a high degree of fit in spatial distribution.(3)This paper uses CLUE-S model to simulate the future land use pattern of Wu'an City,proposing relevant land use management and control recommendations.The results of flood risk assessment and land use change driving mechanism are combined into the CLUE-S model,then setting other required parameters of the model simulating the future land use change in target year.The Kappa coefficient is 0.841,which indicates that the simulation results are consistent with the actual situation.For the existing problems in current land use pattern,the results of land use optimization provide relevant management and control recommendations for future land use.