Research On Real Option Investment Decision Model Of Fuel Cell Vehicle Project Based On Learning Curve

In recent years,the issue of energy supply and environmental pollution have become the focus of global attention,and countries around the world are vigorously promoting the development of technologies related to new energy vehicles.New energy vehicles mainly include electric vehicles,plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles.And fuel cell vehicles have the advantages of short hydrogenation time,long continue voyage course and zero emissions,which is considered to be the ultimate choice for new energy vehicles in the future.Fuel cell vehicles in China are still in the demonstration stage due to limited fuel cell technology and high cost.In the future,there will be greater uncertainty in technology,government policies and market demand.Facing these uncertain factors in investment,this paper selects the real option method to estimate the value of fuel cell vehicle investment,thus providing decision-makers with reasonable decision-making recommendations.In addition,the high cost of fuel cells caused by immature fuel cell technology is an important reason hindering the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles.Therefore,this paper This paper will use the learning curve model to predict the unit cost of the fuel cell system and introduce it into the real option model to research on the investment decision problem under the uncertainty of fuel cell technology progress,which helps to make better decision for investing in fuel cell vehicle projects.At the same time,as an important way to support the development of the fuel cell vehicle industry,government subsidies will gradually decline in the future and eventually exit markets,but the subsidy amount and exit time are uncertainty.Therefore,this paper will study the impact of changes in the fuel cell technology learning rate on project investment decisions under different way of government subsidies.The main contents of this paper are as follows: Firstly,it analyzes the main factors affecting the investment of fuel cell vehicle projects,including technological progress,government subsidies,prices and sales,and summarize the project investment characteristics.Secondly,this paper constructs a real option investment decision model for fuel cell vehicle projects based on learning curve.Considering the uncertainty of technological progress and government subsidy,the fuel cell technology learning rate and the government subsidy ratio are the key indicators for research.The third part is to apply this model through a case study.This paper studies how to make investment decisions under different learning rates and government subsidies.Finally,this paper uses a sensitivity analysis to study the indicators affecting the project's return.The results show that fuel cell technology progress is the most influential factor on the project investment value.According on the results,this paper proposes recommendations.