| Facing the severe challenge of global warming,promoting the development of renewable energy has becomed a long-term strategic policy for China.With the prevalence of domestic haze and the large-scale outbreak of gas shortage in winter,the geothermal resources are pushed to the climax of development.The Chinese government has promulgated the "Notice on Accelerating the Development and Utilization of Shallow Geothermal Energy to Promote the Reduction and Replacement of Coal Burning in Northern Heating Areas",to promote rapid development of geothermal heating.However,according to the "China Geothermal Energy Development Report(2018)",the actual development of geothermal heating and geothermal power generation is far below the development targets set by the government.At present,the development of geothermal resources is blocked mainly by large initial investment costs,high uncertainty,and insufficient support from the government.Moreover,geothermal investment decisions strongly require geological expertise and data,with reasonable assessment methods and related research lacked.Therefore,based on new ideas and theories,this study uses an exploratory modeling to creatively analyze China's geothermal resources investment decisions and incentive policies,which is of great significance to promote geothermal development and improve energy structure of China.Due to high uncertainty and decision flexibility of geothermal projects,traditional project evaluation methods are no longer applicable to the analysis of geothermal investment.In order to fully consider the impact of uncertainty and decision flexibility,this study respectively establishes the Black-Scholes model,the multi-factor option model,and the multi-factor and multi-option model based on the real option theory.By introducing the Thermal-Hydrologic Coupling Model,geological factors are incorporated into the decision-making framework for geothermal resource investment.As a result,the influence of geological uncertainty on geothermal investment decision can be quantified.On the basis of the above theoretical model,by identifying the risk factor and the decision-making characteristics of different geothermal resources,three specific models were established to analyze investment decision of different types of geothermal resource and simulate the effects of incentive policy and policy mix,thereby providing a reference for the formulation of geothermal development policies in China.The research results show that the application of real option can increase investment value of geothermal resource,however,the optimal investment time is still late.This indicates that it is necessary to increase governmental support.As for shallow geothermal resources,due to its low geological dependence and relatively mature technology,flexible policies such as preferential electricity price and preferential tax are more effective than one-time subsidy policies,especially decreasing electricity price is the most effective measure.For hydrothermal geothermal resources,it should be given priority to establish development pilots in regions with high geothermal gradient and permeability,and supporting policies should varies with local geological conditions.From the results of this study,increasing subsidies and dereasing electricity price are the most effective incentives for hydrothermal geothermal heating with low geothermal gradient and permeability.Finally,in terms of geothermal power generation,full consideration should be given to the decision-making flexibility of enterprises and investors during the investment entry phase and exploration and drilling phases.It is also necessary to strengthen the research and development efforts to eliminate technical barriers,and pregulate the feed-in tariff policy for geothermal electricity.When the government is unable to provide high subsidies,it can reduce subsidies and guide investment decisions of enterprises and investors by adjusting the subsidy exit timing.. |
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