Uncertainty Modeling And Application Of Air-conditioner In Power System

The air-conditioning load is the main cause of the peak load of the power system in most regions of China,and it has an adverse effect on the safe and economic operation of the power system.However,from the perspective of load regulation,air-conditioning load,as a typical load with thermal storage characteristics,has high response speed,flexible control,and large adjustable potential.It is a high-quality demand response resource under the smart grid and can be included in the grid peak regulation auxiliary service.However,there are plenty of influencing factors while air conditioning load responding to power grid dispatch,which has great uncertainty and increases the difficulty of dispatching risk and system coordination.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the air conditioning load with uncertainties applying in power system operation.This paper starts with the uncertainty analysis and modeling of the air-conditioning load,and takes the split-type inverter air conditioning with uncertainty as the research object to study the air-conditioning load aggregator contract capacity declaration strategy and establish a traditional unit-air conditioning load cluster coordinated dispatching model.Firstly,this paper analyzes the uncertainty of demand response from the perspectives of user response methods and uncertainty theory.The current research status of air conditioning system modeling in the academic community are summarized.The application of airconditioning load in power system is summarized from aspects such as peaking,frequency modulation,system backup,and suppression of distributed power supply fluctuations,which lays the foundation for the follow-up study of this paper.Secondly,this paper makes a detailed analysis of the uncertainty of the air conditioning system itself and its participation in the response process.Based on the basic model of the air conditioning system,considering the uncertainty of the model parameters,the uncertainty model of the air conditioning system is established.At the same time,a stochastic numerical simulation method is used to establish a probabilistic model of air-conditioned room temperature.Then,the air conditioning peak regulation model with uncertainties is established based on the control characteristics of the inverter air conditioning.In the scene that air conditioner load is integrated by load aggregators and participates in peak load regulation of power grids,based on the cost and benefit calculation model of load aggregator transaction,a load aggregator declaration capacity decision model based on hierarchical power grid compensation system is established.The example shows that the configuration of energy storage can avoid the transaction risk caused by the uncertainty of air conditioning response,and the grid-level compensation rules can encourage air-conditioning users to improve their own response reliability and meet the requirements for safe and stable operation of the power grid.Finally,the traditional unit-air conditioning load cluster cooperative optimization dispatch based on risk assessment is studied.Based on the air conditioning peak regulation model,an uncertainty model of air conditioning cluster response is established,and a quantitative assessment of the payment costs and risk costs of the air conditioning cluster are performed from the perspective of the power company.In the scenario of the day-to-day dispatching plan,according to the results of the daily load forecasting,the traditional generator set and the airconditioning load cluster are co-scheduled during the power supply gap period to meet the power supply-demand balance.A power source-load collaborative dispatching model is established using the minimum expected value of traditional unit generation cost and air conditioning cluster scheduling cost as the objective function.Based on the opportunity constraints of the uncertain response of the air conditioning cluster,the unit combination of the traditional unit and the load reduction method of the air conditioning cluster are proposed.The results of the example show that considering air-conditioning clusters participating in grid codispatching can help to alleviate the power shortage of the system.At the same time,scheduling based on the power source-load cooperative dispatch model can reduce costs and promote safe and economical operation of the power grid.