The Trade Effect Analysis Of Mechanical And Electrical Products Based On Co-opetition Relationship Under CAFTA

2014 is the first year of the next decade for the strategic partnership between China and ASEAN,also the first year for two sides to build an upgraded version of CAFTA.The cooperation between China and ASEAN is moving from “the golden ten years” to “the diamond ten years”.The bilateral trade between China and ASEAN has been growing steadily.The mechanical and electrical products are not only the world’s largest trade volume goods but also the first one in China and ASEAN bilateral trade.The mechanical and electrical products trade volume has reached fifty percent of China ASEAN bilateral trade volume.The trade of mechanical and electrical products plays an important role in the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN.Since twenty-first Century,the world economic situation and international economic relations has changed.The competition and cooperation among the economies which will have a profound impact on the international economic and trade pattern is becoming the new trend of international economic development.The strength of the market,the promotion of the government and the trend of world economic development jointly promote the development of the Co-opetiton between China and ASEAN.Therefore,it is of great significance to discuss and analyze the mechanical and electrical products trade effects of China and ASEAN on the basis of Co-opetition relationship.Firstly,this paper starts with an analysis of the Co-opetiton between China and ASEAN.The mechanism of economic and trade cooperation of ASEAN and China is analyzed from the direction and goals of cooperation,cooperation motivation,cooperation mechanism.The economic and trade competition between China and ASEAN is explored from the national strategy and market carrier.Secondly,this paper analyzes the Co-opetition relationship between China and ASEAN in terms of the comparative advantage index,trade complementarity index and intra industry trade index.Thirdly,according to the Co-opetition relationship between China and ASEAN,the paper analyzes the influence on the trade effect.It shows that the Cooperation between the two sides affect the static effect more.The cooperation brings the expansion of the scale of trade in mechanical and electrical products,the improvement of intra industry trade and the enhancement of trade creation effect.And the competition between the two sides affects dynamic effect more.In the course of competition,China and ASEAN will promote the development of mechanical and electrical industry by upgrading the industrial structure,promoting the competitive advantage and enhancing the economic strength.Fourthly,since the static effect of trade is more significant than the dynamic effect,this paper conducts an empirical investigation into the mechanical and electrical products trade creation effect and trade diversion effect of CAFTA by combining the trade gravity model with the difference-in-difference method.The results show that the trade creation effect of import and export of mechanical and electrical products in China and ASEAN is significantly positive,and there is no trade diversion effect.In general,the average treatment effect of the CAFTA on China’s import of mechanical and electrical products is significantly positive,but the export is not.Finally,this paper analyzes the restricting factors that affect the development of bilateral trade of mechanical and electrical products in order to further the Co-opetiton and effect of China and ASEAN on mechanical and electrical products.The countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the higher resource allocation,industrial upgrading and sustainable development of bilateral relationship.