A Model Based On Technology Diffusion For Studying On Factors Affecting The Wind Power Development

China has developed eight wind power bases to boost its large-scale exploitation of this resource,thereby achieving great success in recent years.In this study,we propose an adjusted technical innovation diffusion model to explore the optimal development paths for the eight bases until 2030.Considering environmental differences,the model takes the following factors into account: regional and national incentive policies for grid construction and financial subsidies,technology diffusion,wind power accidents,and grid availability.In addition,we classify the bases into four groups according to their geographical locations and economic development to investigate the common characteristics affecting their development.The empirical analysis indicates that all eight bases may achieve their development goals by 2020,but not all may achieve their 2030 goals under most circumstances.The effect of incentive policies varies significantly among regions due to differences in available resources and economic development.Grid availability is the biggest obstacle to wind power development in regions with abundant resources and underdeveloped economies,whereas financial subsidies are the key driver of wind power diffusion in developed regions.