Study On Flexible Concession Period And Network Design For Highway System With Demand Forecasting

Private participation in the construction and operation of toll road projects are increasing.There are more and more highways using the PPP mode to construction and operation in China,especially the BOT mode,which has achieved great success.However,The concession of China’s toll road project is fixed,and t can not eliminate the risk of the traffic demand.This paper proposes a flexible mechanism which can dynamically adjust the concession period to reduce the influence of demand risk on concession period and promote the effective concession period.With the ratio of private toll road project increasing,financing or capital structure of road network construction is becoming more and more complex.At present,the road network of free,state-owned and private toll road coexistence,which need to considerate the joint decision of user travel costs,social fairness,economic benefits and risks performance of the strategy.Firstly,assuming the process of traffic obeys the Markov process,and establish the traffic demand forecasting model,then established the concession period decision-making model by the net present value theory,Secondly,study the high-speed network design project,first built Make least squares model based on user equilibrium to conduct OD matrix estimation and traffic flow forecasting of road network,then build the network social welfare maximization model to determine the evolution strategy of dynamic network,under the premise of global optimization of social welfare,to ensure economic benefits of each business entity and the corresponding investment risk index.Finally,analyze the evolution of Hubei province highway network,then take the "Golden Triangle" region of high speed backbone network as an example,analyzed the concession period mechanism and network design problem of expressway to verify the research model and the theory of feasibility and applicability.The research of this paper can provide decision support for the government and the private company to determine the flexible franchising mechanism and design the highway network.