Research On Carrying Capacity Of The Middle Reach Of The Changjiang River

The Changjiang River Economic Belt relying on the Changjiang River golden waterway stretch across west,middle and east area in our country.The Middle Reach plays an important role of linking the eastern and western.Waterway cargo carrying capacity been studied in this article.To study waterway cargo carrying capacity,the network model is introduced.The network model with OD structure is established,in which the cargo flows between arbitrary original point and destination port is the variables,the sum of all goods flows or freight turnovers is the objective function,subject to the leg transit capacity and obstructing transit capacity constraints.Based on the current development situation of social,economy,and water transportation,such as port,waterway,ship,etc,of the middle reach of Changjiang River.The thinking of combination forecast is used to predict the transport demand of the middle reach of Changjiang River;The middle channel can be divided into Yichang to Jingzhou,Jingzhou to Yueyang,Yueyang to Wuhan,Wuhan to Huangshi,Huangshi to Jiujiang,a total of five section.The traffic flow theories and related parameters are used to calculate the transit capacity of each segment and explore the relationship between segment through ability and channel dimensions,ship form parameters.The complex network theory and method are used to reckon the freight network OD matrix between of the eight nodes(upstream is regarded as a node,6 ports of middle reaches as six nodes,downstream as a node,a total of eight nodes),through the analysis of historical data.The combination of freight network OD matrix each segment through capacity constraints,navigation-obstructing building through limited capacity,to calculate waterway cargo carrying capacity in the middle reach of Changjiang River.Research results show that the waterway cargo carrying capacity of the middle reach of Changjiang River is 6.68 billion tons.The cargo carrying capacity of the down-link channel is 3.69 billion tons,the limited of which segment is from Jingzhou to Wuhan.The cargo carrying capacity of the up-link channel is 2.19 billion tons,the limited of which segment is from Huangshi to Jiujiang.The transit demand fo the middle reach of the Changjiang River will reach 1.12-1.74 billion tons tons in 2020,which will reach 1.62-1.913 in 2030 will reach,and 2.61-4.19 billion tons in 2050.According to the measurement result of capacity saturation,the middle reach of Changjiang River will keep good load-bearing state during 2015-2020 period,and stay reasonable bearing state from the year 2020 to 2030.Flowing the development trend of freight,the middle reach of Changjiang River will gradually achieve the full load condition.The factor of waterway may reach the load point,and which productivity available space narrow.At the last,corresponding preventive measures and suggestions is been put forward.