Fload Forecasting Of Harbin Power Grid

The power load forecasting is a very important work of the power system.With the reference of the result of load forecasting,it is an important basis for the regulation department to arrange the unit maintenance plan rationally.In the process of the construction and development of the power grid,the capacity of the installed capacity is determined in the process of the construction and development of the power grid.The distribution of the machine area and the time of loading.The core of load forecasting is the calculation method,which is the mathematical model.With the rapid development of the mathematical system,the research on the theory of load forecasting is deepening,and the more convenient and quick prediction program and software have appeared.The future load forecasting work is an uncertain event.The uncertainty,inaccuracy,timeliness and multi scheme of the uncertainty of the load forecasting are characterized.Appropriate load forecasting technology can accurately show the trend of load development.Taking the Harbin power supply area as the research object,the historical data of 30 years in the period from 1986 to 2015 in the Harbin area are counted,and the information of Harbin's annual gross national economic product(GNP),the output value of each industry,the power supply load of Harbin power supply region and the comprehensive electricity and electricity,etc.are collected,and the load of the Harbin power grid is carried out.The study of prediction.First of all,we understand the content of load forecasting through various documents,such as the classification of electricity users,the types of load,the domestic and foreign research situation of load forecasting,the work flow of load forecasting,and the factors which have important influence on the load.Understand the economic development of Harbin power supply area.Statistics of power supply load and comprehensive electricity consumption in Harbin power supply area are given.Secondly,the overall load characteristics of Harbin power supply area are analyzed.The load characteristics of daily,monthly and annual load and the density of urban load are analyzed respectively.Then,some representative related industries,urban streets and rural streets,which can be counted in Harbin power supply area,are selected to analyze the load characteristics of various industries in the typical year of analysis.Finally,the logic Christian growth curve model,multiple linear regression model,grey prediction model,neural network model are simulated,and the prediction model is established.The power supply load and electricity consumption in Harbin area are predicted,and a high precision pretest method is determined by comparison and analysis.