Forecast Of Power Demand In Shangrao Economic And Technological Development Zone Based On Grid Planning

Power demand forecasting is the premise and foundation of distribution network planning.Its accuracy is directly related to the quality of the planning scheme and the safe and reliable economic operation of the distribution network.At the same time,it is also an important part of realizing the modern operation and management of power system.Distribution network planning should not only predict the total amount of future load,but also predict the distribution of future load position,namely total load forecasting and spatial load forecasting,which have important guiding significance for rational distribution network planning.In this paper,a large number of distributed power sources in the power supply area of Shangrao economic and Technological Development Zone(hereinafter referred to as Shangrao Jing Kai District),the unbalanced growth of power demand and the spatial distribution of load are divided into 4 planning areas and 24 planning grids.According to the current situation assessment of distribution network and the detailed planning of regional control,this paper classifies the plots with different land properties and development depth,and carries out the grid based subarea load forecasting to achieve the transition from surface to point and improve the planning accuracy.The short-term load forecasting is mainly based on the large user method,and the forward prediction is mainly based on the prediction method of spatial load,and the load of Shangrao is predicted by the method of elastic coefficient,exponential regression and sub industry industry.Considering the disordered access of large scale electric vehicles,the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the driving mode and charging mode of electric vehicles in accordance with the estimation of the size of the electric vehicle in the year of saturation.The comprehensive load characteristic curve of the electric vehicle charging in Shangrao is predicted in the year of saturation.Three kinds of mature forecasting methods are used to predict the total social electricity consumption of Shangrao crossing area from 2017 to saturable year by using the output value single consumption method,the elastic coefficient method and the maximum load use hour number method.Through the accurate analysis of the load demand of each block,different stages and different categories of users,the transformation of distribution network planning management from "technology oriented" to "value oriented",from "standardized management" to "lean management".