Research On Planning Method For Regional Distribution Network Under The Environment Of Electricity Market

The electricity market-oriented reform has been the focus at home and abroad.In order to deal with the situation of government function not reaching the designated position and lack of coordination between power supply,distribution and load during the reform process,scholars have conducted extensive research in the area of organization,market power,market sustainability and the combination of power market and load forecasting.At the same time,these researchers also prove the necessity of building a new distribution network planning system under the condition of power system reform.In terms of distribution network planning,scholars have proposed many load forecasting and grid planning methods,such as genetic algorithm,gray prediction and ANN,etc.This kind of exploration is not only meaningful,but also largely proved to be practical.However many of the methods have their own limitations,and scholars have invested less in planning research under the new form of power system reform,which is needed in the current situation.Firstly,this paper firstly study a set of planning process,related methods and models based on a provincial electricity market to meet the requirements of the power system reform,which are from the prospective of market research,load forecasting and grid planning.This paper also clarifies the responsibility interface of stakeholders and the roles in grid planning.Secondly,this paper makes an internal and external environment analysis of the current regional power market situation,and also combs the development of economic policy in this region for a period of time.In the medium and long-term electricity price forecasting,I build a neural network prediction model based on genetic algorithm optimization,which complements the deficiency of neural network.Based on the predicted price data,this paper revises and restrains the power load and power planning investment,and further strengthens the basic work of distribution network planning.Thirdly,a power load forecasting model based on scenario analysis method is established in this paper,which is clear to optimistic,non-abrupt,pessimistic environment load forecasting methods.The prediction model of electricity consumption in the non-abrupt environment is based on the combination prediction method of index method,grey prediction method and neural network method,the maximum load prediction model is based on the neural network method.This method(Scenario Analysis)can take full advantage of gray model,neural network model and composite model,etc,which improves the precision of prediction and gives the efficient data.based on the market mechanism.Finally,this paper proposes a three-step distribution network planning method,which contains the transformer demand forecasting based on power load forecast,the transformer location choosing and a planning method for distribution line with Distributed Generation and high reliability.this paper applies the planning and analysis method mentioned above to the regional distribution network.It has obtained a good planning effect.Through the analysis of data mining and cases,it has effectively solved the problems which restrict the development of the power grid,and has offered a planning method for energy departments.This method gives a target for meet the need of regional power grid and economic development,and also promote the development of distribution network in the power market environment.