Electricity Price Forecasting And Market Analysis "Case Study Of Rwanda"

As worldwide liberalization of power markets,electricity can be purchased and sold as any other commodity.The increasing of the electricity price on the market in Rwanda is the issue of this research.In order to decrease risks,increase profits and make future plans,it is important for participants of electricity market to forecast future prices.My study focused on electricity price forecasting and market analysis.The study was conducted in Rwanda as a case study of the research.The research was conducted using interview,others research’s report and data collected from EUCL,REG and RURA to forecast the electricity price we have used Fuzzy Logic model and the data have analyzed using MATLAB and GMDH.The specific objective of this research project were to identify key variables when building short-term or long-term electricity price models in Rwanda and to identify suitable model-types for this market.For the objective we have to take others consideration to follow in the where to have good service in the energy sector;those are:Ensure affordability,reliability and continuous electricity access around the country,Improve energy sector frame work to encourage investors invest in rural electrification with small hydropower,Ensure diversification of energy sources domestically available in the region,We have find that based on our objective to identify key variable to build short-term or long-term electricity price model and a suitable model of the Rwandan market the Fuzzy Logic Model is appropriate because we have find that this model doesn’t need many data as we have staggering to collect the date the needed.Electricity price forecast for Rwandan market was not easy to forecast but with small amount of data we have design a model to forecast electricity price for the short term and long-term,with the data we have FL model show us price forecasted and actual price has a small difference and for the long-term we have taken 5 years which the result have shown the increasing of load and consumers.The results are reported and at the end of this study,recommendations for further research on these utilities are given.