Research On Evolution And Forecast Of Provincial Energy Supply System Vulnerability In China

In our country,primary energy is still the basis of our national economy and industry.As China's overall national strength continues to increase,the issue of energy is increasingly showing its importance.The energy supply problem is the basic guarantee for a country's long-term stability and the people's happy life.In recent years,the problem of energy supply in the province has been continuously demonstrated and intensified.Energy supply systems in different provinces have certain commonalities,and they also have large differences.How to optimize the provincial energy supply system to meet the development needs of all sectors has become a challenge that China must face.First,by analyzing a large number of domestic and foreign documents,we summarize the concept and components of vulnerability and reinterpret the meaning of energy supply system.According to the principle of 3E system,the energy supply system is divided into economic subsystem,energy subsystem and environmental subsystem.The three subsystems analyze the status of the energy supply system from the perspective of subsystems and describe the enormous internal and external pressures that the energy supply system is subjected to.The concept of energy supply system vulnerability is defined,its scope of research is defined,its internal and external influence factors are understood,and the relationship between the vulnerability and stability of the energy supply system is analyzed,and the purpose and significance of its research are further clarified.Second,we evaluate the vulnerability of energy supply systems in various provinces in China.According to the connotation of the energy supply system,the three subsystems of the energy supply system,the economic subsystem,the energy subsystem,and the environmental subsystem,are taken as the starting point,combined with the elements of vulnerability,namely exposure,sensitivity,and adaptability,to comply with the evaluation index system.The principle is to establish a vulnerability evaluation index system for provincial energy supply systems in China.Using the combination of entropy method and set pair analysis,the energy supply system vulnerability of each province in 2016 was calculated,and the vulnerability was divided into highly fragile,highly fragile,moderately fragile,and relatively weak based on k-means clustering analysis,the preliminary analysis of the status quo of China's energy supply system from the perspective of vulnerability and various subsystemscan not only verify the validity of the method,but also identify the provinces where the stage of vulnerability is more serious,aiming to attract the attention of relevant departments,and to promote the sustainable development of the provincial energy supply system.Then,we constructed a model for the evolution of provincial energy supply system vulnerability under a three-dimensional perspective.Using the combination of entropy method and set pair analysis,we calculated the vulnerability values of China's provincial energy supply systems from 2007 to 2016,and explored the evolution rules of vulnerability from the three dimensions of speed,degree,and type respectively: Understand the development trend of the vulnerability of China's energy supply system and the improvement of the vulnerability of energy supply systems in various provinces;the k-means cluster analysis method is used to describe the process of changes in the provincial-level vulnerability in various regions,and provide reference opinions for regional management;and according to the triangular map method,the types of vulnerability of energy supply systems in different provinces are differentiated,the areas that are vulnerable in the development of energy supply systems in each province are identified,and the main contradictions in the energy supply systems in each province are explored.Through the summary analysis of the evolutionary results,it is possible to identify problems that may arise in China's energy supply system in the future,and to establish a vulnerability forecasting model of China's energy supply system based on BP neural network,we have trained the data of various indicators for2007-2015,using related data from 2016 to test,and using trained networks to predict the vulnerability index values of energy supply systems in various provinces during the period of2017-2026,so as to obtain the vulnerability of energy supply systems in corresponding years.In view of the possible problems in China's energy supply system under the current evolution laws,the forecasted values are analyzed to obtain the results of changes in the vulnerability of China's energy supply system and the degree of vulnerability.By observing the trend of vulnerability,it is necessary to determine the need for energy policy changes,identify key provinces where future vulnerability is aggravated,and it is possible to anticipate areas of vulnerability in advance and provide data and theoretical support for improving the vulnerability of energy supply systems.Finally,we propose ways to improve the vulnerability of provincial energy supply systems.According to the evolution rules and forecast results of the vulnerability of energysupply systems in various provinces in China,relevant improvement approaches are proposed,including energy policies that need to be adjusted before vulnerability is increased,The unified management of provinces and regions with the same level of vulnerability shall be carried out in different regions,and the provinces shall take targeted improvement measures in accordance with their own types of vulnerability,the purpose is to provide a scientific reference for the formulation of energy policies.