Investment Risk Evaluation For Prefabrieated Housing Project From The Perspective Of Developer

Green development is considered as a theme of times development,and it is also a common issue faced by humans.The prefabricated constructions have the advantages of energy saving,green environmental protection and so on,which are architectural forms in line with the trend of the times.The prefabricated constructions are regarded as a major change in the construction industry internationally,and have been widely adopted by developed countries.As an energy saving,green and environmentally friendly residential product,it is shifting from the preliminary exploration to the active promotion stage.However,the development process of prefabricated constructions in China is relatively slow,and the investment risk is one of the important reasons that influence developers to develop prefabricated house.From the developer's perspective,this article analyzes the current situation of domestic and foreign researches on the development of prefabricated house.Using the basic theory of investment risks,through the comparative analysis of prefabricated house and traditional residential projects,it is found that the prefabricated Housing face more risks than the traditional residential projects in policy,technology,market and other aspects.On the basis of the characteristics of prefabricated house combined with the full-life-cycle risk characteristics of residential projects,and integrated utilizing literature analysis and questionnaire method to identify the risk source of the overall environment of investment projects,it can be recognized that the investment risk factors of prefabricated house are mainly from the economic,social,policy,market,technical,management and cost seven aspects.On this basis,the investment risk evaluation index system of prefabricated house is initially built,including six primary risk indicators including economic risks,social risks,policy risks,market risks,technical risks and management risks,as well as secondary risk indicators like interest rate changes,urban development risks,industrial regulation risks,public perception risks,the sophistication of prefabricated structural system and poor operational management.The entropy method is used to determine the index weights.Based on the secondary risk indicators scoring by the experts,the eigenvalues of the indicator cloud language are established through the principle of cloud inverse operations,and the risk integrated cloud is calculated by the forward cloud generator.Comparing the generated comprehensive cloud with the standard cloud,the risk level is finally confirmed.According to the cloud theory,a comprehensive evaluation model of the investment risk of prefabricated residentialprojects based on the cloud model is constructed.Eventually,utilizing the constructed evaluation model,an empirical analysis and evaluation was conducted on the investment risk of “Qingpu new city 63A-03 A block of general commercial housing project” in Shanghai.The analysis results show that the investment risk of this prefabricated residential project is between “general risk” and “high risk”,closer to the “high risk”.The main risks lie in the risks of policy changes,the immature risks of technology,and the perceived risks of customers in the market.The evaluation results are basically consistent with the current investment market conditions of prefabricated residential projects,indicating that the evaluation model is theoretically feasible and operational in practice,and can provide a feasible method for developers to recognize risks when investing in prefabricated residential projects.