Interactive Simulation Of Electric Energy And Economy System For Global Energy Interconnection

Energy and environment problems are grand challenges faced by the world.Traditional fossil energy inclines to depletion because of long time overexploita-tion.Meanwhile,the over-limit carbon emission intensified the global warming tendency.Confronted with severer and severer fossil energy predicament and the consequent global problems,it has become a consensus of the international com-munity to form a global view of energy,construct Global Energy Interconnection(GEI),plan the exploitation,deployment and utilization of global energy re-sources as a whole,and guarantee the safe,clean,highly efficient and sustainable supply of energy.As the most enormous open system that humans will establish,GEI is not only the organic combination of physical system and information system,but also the overall integration of energy flow and information flow,and therefore has complicated dynamic characteristics.It's strategically significant for the mac-ro-decision of GEI construction process to numerically analyze the relation of global economy and electricity energy,build the electricity-economy system dy-namics model reflecting the macroscopic characteristics of GEI,design the nu-merical simulation program applicable to the study of GEI macroscopic character-istics and then simulate and evolve the global energy and economy development pattern under different international economy and energy circumstances.Aimed at the interactive simulation of the electricity-economy system,this thesis studies the following contexts:Firstly,the connotation of the macroscopic characteristics of GEI is elaborat-ed,and related studies are conducted based on two macroscopic characteristics—the relationship of energy consumption and economy growth and the optimal allo-cation of global energy.Based on original historical data and the data after H-P filtering,the long-term equilibrium relation and the short-term fluctuation relation of world energy consumption and economy growth are studied.Energy consump-tion,electricity consumption and economy growth are organized into one unified model through VAR(vector auto-regression)model,whose dynamic relationships are studied by impulse response method and variance decomposition method.The study shows that substituting electricity generated by clean energy for fossil ener-gy consumption can effectively support the development of world economy.The optimal allocation of global energy is studied based on minimum deviation method,and the result shows that electricity substitution has large economy benefits.This research provides the effective model for numerical simulation and scenario anal-ysis.Secondly,the electricity-economy system dynamics model reflecting the macroscopic characteristics of GEI is built by defining the boundary of the system,selecting key elements of the subsystems,forming the casual loop diagram and the system flow diagram and obtaining the math equations of the variables based on function fitting.Based on the connotation and main influence factors of the mac-roscopic characteristics,the electricity-economy system is divided into three sub-systems—electricity energy consumption,economy and carbon emission,which is further divided into four modules of energy consumption,electricity,economy and carbon emission.Finally,an adaptive variable step algorithm is proposed to solve the built electricity-economy system dynamics model,using improved Euler methods and Runge-Kutta methods separately,and then the simulation program and software interface are designed.Based on the system model,the development of world electricity energy and economy systems in the first stage of constructing GEI is simulated,and the effect of constructing GEI on world economy,energy and envi-ronment is analyzed.Then the development of world electricity,economy,energy and environment in different situations of energy consumption ratio,clean energy installed capacity,economy growth,research and development expenditure is fur-ther simulated.These studies provide theoretical guidance for the macro-decision of GEI construction process.