The Study On Spatial Difference And Dynamic Transmission Mechanism Of Energy Consumption Level In China

Energy is an important material foundation of national economic development,energy consumption and economic development are both closely related and mutually dependent.China has always been a big energy consuming country,and the energy consumption pattern of "high energy consumption,low output" has made China in a disadvantaged international position for a long time.Therefore,in the premise of maintaining stable economic development,promotes our country economy to adapt to the new norm,optimize the economic development pattern,promote urbanization,transformation,optimizing energy structure and energy consumption structure,is the key to promote economic restructuring.Based on the country’s energy consumption structure,it is of great practical significance to study the level of energy consumption in China to promote the development of China’s energy consumption and economic development.This paper analyzes the spatial differences of energy consumption in China,studies the main influencing factors of energy consumption and the degree of its reaction,and forecasts the energy consumption of China’s energy consumption in the next five years.The contents of the study are summarized as follows:First,the analysis of China’s overall energy consumption differences and regional decomposition of energy consumption.First of all,China’s energy consumption overview of the overall introduction and description,on the whole,China’s eastern,central and western energy consumption level is not balanced,roughly showing the eastern region is far better than the central and western regions of the law.Second,the overall measure of energy consumption per capita in China.Using the Kruskal-Wallis test,it is concluded that there are significant differences in the energy consumption level in the east,middle and west of China,and decreases significantly from east to west.Then,by calculating the Gini coefficient and Theil index,this paper reflects the energy consumption of China on the level of a downward trend,but the two indicators reflect the decline in the speed are relatively slow.Third,the overall level of energy consumption differences in regional decomposition.Based on the per capita energy consumption index,the spatial difference of energy consumption level is based on the standard deviation and the average difference.Based on the variance and decomposition model,the differences between the eastern,central and western regions and the regional differences are analyzed The difference between the three regions,the difference between the three regions on the national per capita energy consumption of the overall difference in the contribution rate;can be concluded:First,China’s per capita energy consumption level difference between the regional differences and differences between the two parts,and the region The differences in energy consumption between the three regions of the east,middle and west are increasingly balanced.Second,the difference in the per capita energy consumption level in China is mainly caused by the internal differences,and the differences in the internal differences between the central and eastern regions decrease year by year,Indicating that the internal energy consumption in the eastern region tends to balance;Third,the central region of the internal differences show gradually widened in 2010 began to reduce the gap in the narrowing;Fourth,the western region of the internal contribution rate increased year by year,internal differences continue to increase.Fourthly,the SDA factor decomposition model is used to decompose the spatial differences of per capita energy consumption in China.Secondly,the spatial differences of per capita energy consumption in the east,middle and west of China are decomposed by SDA.Concluded as follow:The contribution of comprehensive output energy,industrialized rate and per capita GDP to the per capita energy consumption level of China’s population is 29.18%,11.75%and 59.07%respectively.Per capita GDP can explain the energy consumption level of more than half of the difference in space,million yuan industrial output value of the contribution of comprehensive energy consumption followed,while the contribution rate of the smallest contribution rate;from million yuan industrial output value of integrated energy El to the eastern,central and El contributes greatly to the spatial differences between the eastern and western regions.The contribution rate of IG to the contribution of internal spatial differences in the eastern,central and western regions is large,and the contribution of IG in the eastern part of China has started since 1997 The contribution of GP per capita to the spatial diversity in the eastern region is larger and rising,and the contribution to the western region is second and the trend is declining year by year.The contribution to the central region is minimal,but there is an increasing trend.Fifth,energy consumption dynamic transmission mechanism of the influencing factors analysis and prediction.This paper chooses the factors affecting the total consumption of energy consumption by random forest model,and determines the secondary factors,energy efficiency,economic development level and population size as the main factors influencing the energy consumption.Based on the BVAR model,the support vector machine(GA-SVM)based on genetic algorithm is used to analyze the response of the two regions in the next five years.Based on the Bayesian vector autoregressive model,And national energy consumption for comprehensive forecast.According to the conclusions drawn from the analysis,put forward reasonable policy recommendations.