Research On China’s Air Pollution Emissions Control Policy Based On Scenario Robust Decision

Air is a necessary condition for human survival.With the continuous development of industry and economy,a series of environmental problems have been exposed.The deterioration of air quality threatens public health and causes losses to society.In order to build a sustainable society and protect the health of the environment,the government has introduced a large number of air pollution strategies.How to evaluate the implementation effect of the strategy and how to choose the initial strategy of pollution control,this article is to carry out research on this issue,which has important practical and theoretical significance.Based on domestic air pollution control and emission reduction strategies,the study sorted out six different emission reduction strategies as decision variables.The evaluation indicators of strategic choice are social welfare,governance cost and air quality index.By modeling a complex climate-socio-economic system and using deep uncertain parameters,the air pollution-economy-welfare research model framework covering socio-economic development,environmental quality and pollution loss is established on the basis of the DICE model.During the simulation of scenario robust decision-making,the construction of the scenario is completed by sampling the uncertain parameters,and the strategy is evaluated by calculating the relative regret value.The initial robust strategies of ME1 and ME2 are selected as L4 and L5.The threshold of pollutant concentration is set for vulnerability scenario discovery.The PRIM rule is used to obtain the fragile scenario box of the initial robust strategy.For this,six strategies are calculated again,and the robustness of the strategy under the fragile scenario is re-examined.By comparing ME1 and ME2,it is found that different economic settlement methods will lead to differences in the selection of initial robust strategies.Both models of robust strategies under fragile scenarios have changed.It shows that the overall performance of these two strategies is relatively balanced,and the specific choices vary depending on the calculation method.Through the analysis of robust decision-making method,it is concluded that 4 of the 8 deep uncertainty parameters in the research model are more critical,namely the energy consumption coefficient per unit GDP,the atmospheric pollution diffusion intensity coefficient in the environmental system,and the pollution prevention payment Willingness,loss function scale factor.The analysis believes that the energy consumption per unit of GDP is a key factor under the two models,which has identified key concerns for the implementation and formulation of subsequent actual strategies.