Effect Of Urbanization On Carbon Emission In Farmland Use Based On Intermediary Role Of Farmland Transfer

Climate issues are a hot issue in achieving sustainable development in China's socio-economic transformation,and controlling carbon emissions is a key issue in climate issues.China is trying to find a low-carbon path that suits the national conditions and meets the needs of economic and social development.Carbon emissions in urbanization mainly involve industrial carbon emissions and agricultural carbon emissions.While observing industrial carbon emissions and agricultural carbon emissions separately,urbanization,as a socio-economic transformation process that realizes urban-rural interaction,has the potential to affect the carbon emissions of agricultural land use.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the impact of urbanization on the carbon emissions of agricultural land.In urbanization,there are complex characteristics such as urbanization of population,urbanization of employment,and urbanization of land.Urbanization will have an impact on agricultural land use carbon emissions by affecting farmland operators and their external environment.Therefore,it is necessary to find an intermediary variable that can be directly used by urbanization to characterize the behavior of agricultural land managers and the characteristics of agricultural land use,so as to construct a complete urbanization-mediator variable-analysis framework for carbon emissions from agricultural land use.At present,the transfer of agricultural land is a common method of agricultural land disposal in China,which has a huge impact on the use of agricultural land.And urbanization and the emergence and expansion of agricultural land circulation are inextricably linked.Therefore,based on the direct analysis of the effects of urbanization on the carbon emissions of agricultural land use,this study further analyzes the role of urbanization with agricultural land transfer as an intermediary variable on the carbon emissions from agricultural land use.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of urbanization,farmland transfer and carbon emission of agricultural land use in China,this paper decomposes urbanization into three directions: population urbanization,employment urbanization and land urbanization,and the farmland transfer is Intermediary variables,constructing the theoretical framework between urbanization,farmland transfer,and carbon emissions from agricultural land use,and using the mediation effect test model to empirically analyze the impact of population urbanization,employment urbanization,and land urbanization on carbon emissions from agricultural land use.The path is to provide feasible measures for improving the level of urbanization and improving the transfer of agricultural land to promote the coordinated development of agricultural production and low-carbon emission reduction.The specific content and conclusions are as follows:This study takes 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China as the research object in 2017,taking the urbanization of population,employment urbanization and land urbanization as the core independent variables,taking the carbon emission of agricultural land as the explanatory variable,and In the three directions of land transfer,the scale of agricultural land transfer,the direction of agricultural land transfer,and the use of converted farmland are used as intermediate variables.After controlling agricultural economic factors,agricultural structural factors,agricultural scale factors,and differences in the eastern,central and western regions,the first application GeoDa software,through the Moran's I index to test whether the variables have spatial correlation,to determine the empirical model.Then,through the mediation effect test model,the influence path between the variables is tested.The study found:In terms of population urbanization-agricultural land transfer-agricultural land use carbon emission impact path:(1)Population urbanization has a significant negative impact on agricultural land use carbon emissions.(2)Population urbanization has a significant positive impact on the three median variables of farmland circulation scale,agricultural land transfer and the use of farmland.(3)When the agricultural land circulation scale is used as a mediator to measure the circulation of agricultural land,there is a masking effect,and the mediating effect is not established.(4)When the agricultural land transfer direction and the use of the converted farmland are used as the intermediate variables to measure the agricultural land transfer,the negative mediation effect is exerted,and the urbanization of the population has a negative direct effect on the carbon emissions of the agricultural land.In terms of employment urbanization-agricultural land transfer-the impact of agricultural land use carbon emissions:(1)Employment urbanization has a significant negative impact on agricultural land use carbon emissions.(2)Employment urbanization has a significant positive impact on the three median variables of farmland circulation scale,agricultural land transfer and the use of farmland.(3)Intermediary variables: the scale of agricultural land transfer,the direction of agricultural land transfer,and the use of arable land use play a full mediating effect between employment urbanization and agricultural land use carbon emissions.Among them,the scale of farmland circulation has a positive full mediating effect,while the transfer of farmland and the use of farmland have a negative full mediating effect.In terms of land urbanization-agricultural land transfer-agricultural land use carbon emission impact path:(1)Land urbanization also has a significant negative impact on agricultural land use carbon emissions.(2)The urbanization of land has a significant positive impact on the three median variables of the scale of agricultural land transfer,the direction of agricultural land transfer and the use of farmland.(3)When the agricultural land circulation is measured by the intermediary variable agricultural land transfer scale,this variable plays a positive full mediating effect between land urbanization and agricultural land use carbon emissions.(4)When the agricultural land transfer and the conversion of cultivated land use median variables are used to measure the agricultural land transfer,the mediation effect is not established.Finally,combined with the content of the theoretical framework,the results of the empirical test are analyzed in detail,and while following the concept of low-carbon economy and low-carbon agriculture,corresponding policy recommendations are proposed based on the research conclusions,in order to promote the low-carbon utilization of agricultural land and the sustainable development of the agricultural economy.