Research On Comprehensive Risk Assessment System For Urban Refineries

In China,the rapid urbanization and the short sight effect in urban planning make many previously remote areas,where chemical plants are located,be encircled by a large number of residents,schools,hospitals,and hotels,and surrounded by cities and towns.The subsequent safety and health protection distances have become even more challenging and unable to meet the requirements of relevant laws and standards in China.These types of refineries are called urban refineries.It has not only brought difficulties to the risk management for urban refineries but also affected the public safety and living environment of surrounding residents and facilities.This has become a major issue that needs to be solved urgently in the process of industrialization and urbanization in China.This paper analyzed the current national policies for dangerous chemicals enterprises in densely populated areas and used quantitative risk assessment to comprehensively evaluate the risks that urban refineries might bring to make clear and complete judgments as to how safe is safe enough.In this regard,combining practical research with relevant scholars' research,this paper comprehensively considered the comprehensive risks of urban refineries,including the impact of urban activities,the integrated transportation risks arising from pipelines and road transportation,and the risks within the plant,and proposed the acceptable risk criteria including the overall risks and the societal public opinion influence.As for the assessment of the impact of urban activities on refineries,the paper mainly analyzed the impact of third-party damage on the pipeline transportation risks and the impact of residents activities on road transportation risks.Taking into account China's lack of databases in pipeline and road transport accidents,this paper mainly revised the probability of road and pipeline transportation accidents in China referring to statistics of European EGIG pipeline failures and heavy vehicle accidents in the three continents of the United States based on the reality of China's national conditions.And the time-average of the population density had been taken into consideration to calculate the population in the affected areas in order to propose an integrated and comprehensive risk assessment model that could more accurately assess the actual risk of urban refineries.For the acceptable risk criteria,this paper classified them into overall risks and the societal public opinion influence.Overall risks mainly referred to the individual risk and societal risk which were proposed for urban refineries to assess the degree of external public acceptance of the superposition of all refinery risks.Considering the public acceptability of the influence of the society and public opinion caused by the consequences of accidents,the acceptable standard of the corresponding societal public opinion influence was put forward.Finally,the above assessment model and application method were applied to one example to verify their effectiveness,which could provide some references to implement the quantitative risk assessment of urban refineries in the densely populated area.