Modeling The Correlation Mechanism Of CO₂ Emissions In China,EU And USA Trade And Application

Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has experienced a rapid growth.In 2010,China became the world’s second largest economic entity after the USA.But this also leads to rising energy consumption,resulting in increasing carbon dioxide emissions.In 2008,China became the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide;in 2010,it became the world’s largest energy consumer.In 2016,China’s primary energy consumption and CO₂ emissions accounted for 23%and 27.3%of global energy consumption and CO₂ emissions,respectively.Under this circumstance,China’s government has attached great importance to environmental governance issues.In order to control CO₂ emissions,in 2014,China issued the“China’s National Climate Change Program（2014-2020）",in which China pledged to reduce the carbon intensity by 40-45%by 2020 based on the 2005 level.In 2015,China formally submitted its National Independent Contribution（INDC）to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change（UNFCC C）,and determined to decrease carbon intensity by 60-65%by 2030 compared to the 2005level.As a result,the Chinese government is facing huge pressures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.As economic integration in the world continues to advance,energy consumption and carbon emissions in various regions have also become increasingly interdependent.Historical data show that the EU and USA are China’s major international trading partners.In the first three quarters of 2018,the bilateral trade volume between China and the EU is 3.29 trillion RMB while that between China and USA reaches 2.06 trillion RMB,accounting for 14.8%and 13.8%,respectively,of China’s total import and export volumes.Behind the huge volume of trade is the increase of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions.In order to better understand the regional interaction of carbon emissions,this paper uses a three-region input-output approach to explore the linkage of CO₂ emissions among China,EU and USA.Based on the world input-output table and environment account of WIOD in 2009,we calculate the carbon emission multiplier effect,spillover effect and feedback effect,and carry out the analysis from the regional and sectoral levels.On this basis,this paper combines China’s carbon dioxide intensity reduction targets in 2020 and 2030 to explore the impact of CO₂ emission intensity reduction on China’s,EU and US A carbon dioxide emissions.The results show that,first of all,the carbon emission multiplier effect of each region is larger than the spillover and feedback effects.Second,EU and USA have higher carbon emission spillover effect on China than China’s carbon emission spillover effect on them.Finally,the carbon multiplier effects in different sectors have different characteristics.Based on the three-region input-output model,this paper explores the carbon dioxide emission multiplier effect,spillover effect and feedback effect of China,EU and USA.On the one hand,through this study,we determine the key directions of CO₂ emission reduction targets,and thus provide reference for the formulation of relevant emission reduction policies.On the other hand,this paper applies the three-region input-output model to explore the inter-regional carbon dioxide emissions correlation,and analyzes the degree of interaction between China,the EU and the USA in terms of sectoral and regional perspectives.This enriches the relevant theoretical research on the correlation of CO₂ emissions between regions.