Environmental Effects And Path Optimization Of Structural Evolution Of Thermal Power Units

With the increasingly tight supply of fossil energy around the world,the increase in demand for electricity has generated widespread scientific attention.China's power system serves the largest number of people in the world,and the various resource and environmental issues arising from it are also the focus of sustainable development.Considering that thermal power still occupies about 70%of China's power system,and thermal power enterprises are large coal-fired enterprises,in the course of their power generation,they must emit pollutants such as CO₂,SO₂,No_x and PM into the atmosphere.This paper first uses the TCT?Type-cohort-time?material stock assessment method to analyze the evolution of the thermal power unit structure in China from 1980 to 2018.The thermal power unit structure is divided into below 100 MW,100-200 MW,200-300MW,300-600 MW,600-1000 MW and 1000 MW and above.Secondly,the LCA model?life cycle assessment method?was used to evaluate the pollutant emissions of China's thermal power plants from 1980 to 2018,so as to consider the environmental effects of thermal power life cycle,and reasonable addition of research on the life cycle emissions of other power generation sources in the entire power system.Then,LMDI was used to analyze the driving force of pollutant emissions from 1980 to 2018 in China's thermal power units,specifically decomposing pollutant emissions into changes in installed capacity factors,installed structure factors,operating time factors,and emission factor factors.Finally,in view of the changes in the structure of Chinese thermal power units from2019 to 2050,on the one hand,the BASS model was used to predict the changes in the structure of thermal power units from 2019 to 2050,estimating 300MW and above thermal power units as a group coefficient,and using renewable energy units as a substitute coefficient,and the uncertainty analysis of scenario factors is used to explore the impact of the growth rate of power generation,the service life of thermal power units of 300MW and below,and the proportion of alternative new energy installed capacity on the emissions of China's thermal power units during the life cycle.On the other hand,the optimization model is used to study the path optimization of China's thermal power generating unit structure,and Anhui Province is taken as an example to discuss,and the relevant model is used to comprehensively predict the future electricity demand,thermal power installed capacity and atmospheric pollutant emissions of Anhui Province.And on this basis,the optimization model of thermal power system emission reduction is established through the relationship between input cost and emissions,and the optimal path for pollutant emissions from the clean transformation of thermal power in Anhui Province from 2019 to 2050 is obtained,providing an optimized path for the clean transformation of thermal power.And also through the uncertainty analysis of scenario factors to explore the impact of investment cost on the total emissions of Anhui Province thermal power unit evolution structure.