Analysis Of The Impact Of Urbanization On Carbon Emissions In China Based On Threshold Model

At present,China's urbanization develops quickly.The rapid development of urbanization not only promotes China's economic development,but also leads to a large number of environmental problems.Large-scale production activities of human beings emitted a large amount of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.The large volume of these greenhouse gases has caused many environmental problems,such as the rise of global temperature,glaciers melting,rise of sea level and increases of extreme weather.These environmental problems threaten the sustainable development of human beings and hinder the development of economy as well.Nowadays,people's living standard is improving day by day.Meanwhile,people's requirements for a good environment are also increasing.People used to sacrifice the environment to develop economy,in order to explore how to change this kind of economic developing model,this paper mainly discusses the influence of urbanization on carbon emissions.The research object of this paper is the data about urbanization level and the amount of carbon emissions of 30 provinces in China except Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Tibet from 1998 to 2017,and regression analysis is carried out with the help of threshold model to clarify the influence of urbanization on carbon emissions.Firstly,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation system of urbanization and evaluates the urbanization level through 4 aspects;then uses entropy method to calculate the comprehensive score of each province,which is used to measure the comprehensive urbanization level of each province;then,taking the level of economic development as the threshold variable,this paper build the threshold regression model for panel data,this paper concentrates on the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions through the mechanism of the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in 4 aspects--economic development,industrial structure,energy consumption and scientific and technological level.The results show that the sample is divided into three parts according to the threshold value,and the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions varies in different economic levels: when the level of economic development is lower than 8.9059,the threshold regression coefficient showing the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions is 1.0044;when the level of economic development is higher than 8.9059 but lower than 9.9941,the threshold regression coefficient is 0.7362;when the level of economic development is higher than 9.9941,the threshold regression coefficient is 0.4494.The regression results show that at present,China's urbanization still has a positive role in promoting carbon emissions,but this role is gradually reduced.At present,China still needs to strengthen the exploration of carbon emission reduction in production.Finally,through the analysis of the impact mechanism of urbanization on carbon emissions,combined with the results of threshold panel regression analysis,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions on how to achieve win-win between economic development and environment protection in the process of urbanization development from four aspects-industrial structure,energy structure,scientific development and residents' awareness of energy conservation and emission reduction.